EST 0-1 INS · 48% MON 1-1 CLU · 43% GUA 2-0 ATL · 58% COL 1-2 CHI · 49% CLU 2-1 TOL · 54% YOK 1-2 KAW · 47% JEF 1-1 AVI · 42% V-V 1-0 TOK · 44% MAC 2-0 GAM · 62% AME 3-0 EYü · 71% PEC 1-1 ADO · 40% COM 2-0 VEN · 63% CER 1-2 ANT · 50% GET 0-1 SEV · 50% EST 0-1 INS · 48% MON 1-1 CLU · 43% GUA 2-0 ATL · 58% COL 1-2 CHI · 49% CLU 2-1 TOL · 54% YOK 1-2 KAW · 47% JEF 1-1 AVI · 42% V-V 1-0 TOK · 44% MAC 2-0 GAM · 62% AME 3-0 EYü · 71% PEC 1-1 ADO · 40% COM 2-0 VEN · 63% CER 1-2 ANT · 50% GET 0-1 SEV · 50%
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NFL · Regular Season · Week 4 Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park Finished

Buffalo Bills
vs
New England Patriots.

Quick answer

Who will win Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?

Final score: Buffalo Bills 26–29 New England Patriots. Before kickoff, 10 of 10 AI models pick Buffalo Bills to win (100%); the consensus was wrong. The AI predicted score was 27–20.

Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before kickoff. Not betting advice.

All 10 AIs agree. When the whole council agrees, it has been right 58% of the time (67 games).

10 AI models read this game. The plurality on the winner leans toward Buffalo Bills (10 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 27–20 at 60% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.

Who do you think will win?

Vote before kick-off and compare with AI

NFL standings Where Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots stand right now
— Consensus

Where the panel lands.

Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.

Buffalo Bills win 100%

10 / 10 models

New England Patriots win 0%

0 / 10 models

— Model breakdown

10 picks. Receipts attached.

Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.

#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-6 Luna
Buffalo Bills win
28–23
62%
Buffalo has home-field advantage and won the most recent meeting, while the recent series suggests New England can score enough to keep this competitive. A moderate-to-high scoring, one-possession Bills victory fits the available context.
02
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Buffalo Bills win
28–24
62%
Series has split recent meetings tightly, but Bills at home with Allen typically edge close, high-tempo matchups against Patriots.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Buffalo Bills win
26–20
64%
Buffalo holds a distinct home-field advantage at Highmark Stadium. While recent division meetings have stayed tight, the Bills possess superior offensive consistency to edge out New England in a one-possession contest.
04
Grok 4.7
Buffalo Bills win
27–21
61%
Bills at Highmark hold a modest home edge in this rivalry; recent H2H is one-possession and mixed, so a mid-20s Bills win fits Week 4 pace without a blowout.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Buffalo Bills win
27–20
62%
Buffalo's home edge at Highmark and stronger recent scoring against New England support a one-score win; Patriots keep it close given their 2025 split with Buffalo.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
Buffalo Bills win
27–20
62%
Bills won the most recent H2H meeting and hold home-field advantage at Highmark Stadium; Patriots showed competitiveness but Buffalo's roster edge and venue support a moderate home victory.
07
Mistral Medium 3.5
Buffalo Bills win
28–24
62%
Bills home edge, recent H2H close but Bills won last meeting; Patriots defense improving but Bills offense more consistent.
08
Kimi K3
Buffalo Bills win
27–23
58%
Bills took the latest H2H 35-31 and host at Highmark; Patriots' October upset shows they compete, but Buffalo's home scoring edge tilts a tight divisional game.
09
GLM 5.3
Buffalo Bills win
30–20
68%
Bills won 3 of last 5 H2H and dominate at Highmark Stadium; recent meetings show Buffalo's offense outscoring New England, so a double-digit home win fits.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
Buffalo Bills win
27–20
58%
Bills at home with recent H2H edge; Patriots' defense may limit but Buffalo's offense is more consistent in Orchard Park.
— Scoreline frequency

How often each scoreline showed up.

3 of 9 models settled on 27–20. The rest of the list shows where dissent still lives before kickoff.

  • 27–20
    3 models
  • 28–24
    2 models
  • 28–23
    1 model
  • 27–21
    1 model
  • 26–20
    1 model
  • 27–23
    1 model

NFL · Week 4

Matchup, injuries and form

The quarterbacks, who is hurt, how both teams have played the last five weeks, and the line next to the AI.

NFL standings & playoff picture →
SpreadTotalWin chance
10 AIs Bills −7 47 Bills 100%
Quarterback matchup · season
Josh Allen
Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills · QB
250.7 YDS/G 254.9
9 TD 13
4 INT 8
102.1 RATING 96.4
Drake Maye
Drake Maye
New England Patriots · QB

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · #1 AFC East
Home 2-1 · Road 3-0 · Division 0-1 · Streak W2 · Points 197–171
7 days of rest

New England Patriots

4-3 · #2 AFC East
Home 3-0 · Road 1-3 · Division 2-0 · Streak L1 · Points 160–143
7 days of rest

Injury report

Buffalo Bills 3 on injured reserve
  • DJ Moore
    DJ MooreWR
    Shoulder - AC Joint
    Questionable
  • Ed Oliver
    Ed OliverDT
    Knee
    Questionable
  • Grant DuBose
    Grant DuBose
    Shoulder
    Questionable
  • Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
    Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
    Undisclosed
    Questionable
  • Jordan Poyer
    Jordan Poyer
    Hamstring
    Questionable
  • Jalen Virgil
    Jalen Virgil
    Undisclosed
    Questionable
New England Patriots 13 on injured reserve
  • KP
    Karon PruntyCB
    Hamstring
    Questionable
  • Ben Brown
    Ben Brown
    Knee
    Questionable
  • Carlton Davis III
    Carlton Davis IIICB
    Neck
    Questionable
  • CC
    Channing CanadaCB
    Hamstring
    Questionable

Last five games, per game

Buffalo Bills New England Patriots
33.7 Points scored 12
26 Points allowed 17
401.7 Total yards 307
246.7 Passing yards 197.7
155 Rushing yards 109.3
1.7 Turnovers 2.7
55 Third-down % 33
75 Red-zone TD % 17
3 Sacks 2.3
28:42Time of possession29:54

Skill players · Buffalo Bills

  • James Cook
    James CookRB
    627 rushing yards (104.5 a game, 5.4 a carry), 6 TD
  • Dalton Kincaid
    Dalton KincaidTE
    23 catches, 315 receiving yards (52.5 a game), 1 TD
  • Khalil Shakir
    Khalil ShakirWR
    22 catches, 290 receiving yards (48.3 a game), 1 TD

Skill players · New England Patriots

  • Rhamondre Stevenson
    Rhamondre StevensonRB
    285 rushing yards (40.7 a game, 3.7 a carry), 2 TD
  • Hunter Henry
    Hunter HenryTE
    26 catches, 296 receiving yards (42.3 a game), 2 TD
  • Romeo Doubs
    Romeo DoubsWR
    14 catches, 261 receiving yards (43.5 a game), 3 TD

Last ten games

Buffalo Bills WWW
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
Points scored / allowed
33.7 / 26
Total over 41.5
2/3
Total over 44.5
2/3
Total over 47.5
2/3
Won by 7+
2/3
New England Patriots LWL
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
Points scored / allowed
12 / 17
Total over 41.5
0/3
Total over 44.5
0/3
Total over 47.5
0/3
Won by 7+
1/3

Data and player photos: API-Sports. Market line: bookmaker, for comparison only. Other photos via Wikimedia Commons: Drake Maye by Tennessee Titans (CC BY 3.0).

Player props

Prop hit rates: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Each line sits at the player's recent average. Bars show every game, green when he went over.

Josh Allen

Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills · QB · last 3 games
Passing yards o262.5 1/3 · 33% Ask AI
334
248
204
James Cook

James Cook

Buffalo Bills · RB · last 3 games
Rushing yards o115.5 2/3 · 67% Ask AI
57
135
154
Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid

Buffalo Bills · TE · last 3 games
Receiving yards o87.5 2/3 · 67% Ask AI
130
95
38
Receptions o4.5 2/3 · 67% Ask AI
5
7
2
Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir

Buffalo Bills · WR · last 3 games
Receiving yards o31.5 2/3 · 67% Ask AI
50
38
6
Receptions o2.5 2/3 · 67% Ask AI
4
3
1
Drake Maye

Drake Maye

New England Patriots · QB · last 3 games
Passing yards o195.5 2/3 · 67% Ask AI
178
208
199
Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson

New England Patriots · RB · last 3 games
Rushing yards o38.5 2/3 · 67% Ask AI
51
43
22
Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry

New England Patriots · TE · last 3 games
Receiving yards o23.5 2/3 · 67% Ask AI
26
40
5
Receptions o2.5 2/3 · 67% Ask AI
3
3
1
Romeo Doubs

Romeo Doubs

New England Patriots · WR · last 3 games
Receiving yards o48.5 2/3 · 67% Ask AI
0
96
49
Receptions o2.5 2/3 · 67% Ask AI
0
3
3

From box scores of each team's recent games. Lines are our reference points, not sportsbook prices.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots: quick answers

What is the predicted total for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?
The AI models' mean predicted score is Buffalo Bills 27, New England Patriots 20: a projected total of 47 points.
What is the AI spread pick for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?
The AI consensus has Buffalo Bills winning by 7 points (27–20).
Who are the quarterbacks in Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills): 1,504 passing yards (250.7 a game), 9 TD, 4 INT, rating 102.1. Drake Maye (New England Patriots): 1,784 passing yards (254.9 a game), 13 TD, 8 INT, rating 96.4.
Who is injured for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?
Buffalo Bills have no one listed out or doubtful. New England Patriots have no one listed out or doubtful. Questionable players are on the full report on this page.
— Aggregated insights

What’s moving the panel.

01
Consensus favors Buffalo Bills

100% of models lean home — the clearest cluster on this fixture before kickoff.

02
Medium confidence

Mean 60% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.

03
Expected points tilt 27.50 vs 21.50

Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live game data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.

04
Match context

Rest, recent form and home advantage usually decide whether the favourite wins comfortably or the game stays close; check both teams below.

Ask the Council about this match

Pro

10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.

Ask with match data Ask without data (free)

Confidence trend

Cumulative average confidence in table order.

First model Last model

Match overview

Looking for a today prediction on Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots in NFL? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (27 - 20; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before kickoff.

This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is Buffalo Bills win, with vote shares roughly 100% / 0% home and away (rounded).

If you are asking who will win Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.

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Keep browsing today prediction coverage and league hubs.

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