Results
NFL results Sunday 18 October 2026: AI predictions review
NFL results Sunday 18 October 2026: the AI models went 5 of 11 across the board, with Cleveland and Carolina upsets among the misses. Full review and…
Sunday 18 October 2026 produced eleven NFL results and a decidedly mixed afternoon for the TuringStats panel. Ten frontier models ran every match through the pre-match gauntlet; the consensus verdict landed on 5 of 11 correct. That is a .455 hit rate on the day, and it came with high confidence attached to several of the misses.
The biggest surprise of the slate was Cleveland. All ten models backed Baltimore to beat the Browns. The Browns won 13-10 instead, the lowest-scoring game of the day and one that no model saw coming. Carolina's 25-14 win over Philadelphia, with the panel unanimous on the Eagles, ran it close for shock value.
Where the AI got it right
The panel's best call of the afternoon came in Houston, where the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans prediction held up. Nine of ten models took the Texans at 56% average confidence, and Houston came through a 34-31 shootout. The most common projected score was 24-25; the actual total was far higher, but the winner was right.
In New England, the New England Patriots vs New York Jets prediction was a clean unanimous call at 57% confidence, with a 24-17 modal score. The Patriots delivered 26-19 — the margin slightly wider than forecast, the outcome exactly as projected.
The New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints prediction also landed. Nine of ten models favoured New Orleans at 57% confidence and a 24-25 modal score; the Saints won 34-27 in a game that ran well past the projected points but kept the right side of the result.
Kansas City justified unanimous backing in the Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction. All ten models picked the Chiefs at 57% confidence with a 24-20 modal score; the actual 22-6 was tighter on the scoreboard than the models expected but never in doubt on the result.
The panel's least certain pick of the winning set came in Las Vegas, where the Las Vegas Raiders vs Buffalo Bills prediction drew only 80% support at 56% confidence. Buffalo edged it 33-30, close to the 27-28 modal score and a reminder that lower consensus does not always mean lower accuracy.
Where it got it wrong
Six matches went against the panel, and several went against it emphatically. Atlanta was the softer of the misses: 90% of models backed the Falcons at 56% confidence with a 24-20 modal score, and Chicago won 31-23. The panel was split, but the majority landed on the wrong side.
Cleveland was the day's clean sweep in the wrong direction. All ten models picked Baltimore at 57% confidence, with a 24-25 modal score. The Browns won 13-10, a result that sat outside every projection on the board.
Indianapolis and Philadelphia were similarly unanimous and similarly wrong. The Colts drew 100% of the vote at 57% confidence, with a 27-20 modal score; Tennessee won 26-20. The Eagles drew 100% at 58% confidence — the highest average confidence of the day — with a 27-17 modal score; Carolina won 25-14. Tampa Bay made it three unanimous misses: all ten models took the Buccaneers at 57% confidence, and Pittsburgh won 26-19.
The tightest miss came in Arizona, where the Rams were backed by all ten models at 57% confidence with a 28-21 modal score. The Cardinals won 18-16, a two-point margin that turned a confident projection into a loss on the day's ledger.
Models of the day
Eight of the ten models finished on the same tally: 5 of 11 correct. GPT-5.6 Luna, Mistral Medium 3.5, DeepSeek V4 Pro, Qwen 3.8 Max, MiMo V2.5 Pro, Grok 4.6, Kimi K3 and GLM 5.3 all matched the consensus record exactly, which is what a near-unanimous panel tends to produce.
Gemini 3.8 Flash finished just below the group at 4 of 11, while Claude Sonnet 5 was the clear outlier and the worst performer of the day at 3 of 11 correct. On a slate where most models agreed, the differentiation came from the few calls where they did not.
Full results
- NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars 31–34 Houston Texans — consensus Houston Texans win (90%) RIGHT
- NFL: Atlanta Falcons 23–31 Chicago Bears — consensus Atlanta Falcons win (90%) WRONG
- NFL: Cleveland Browns 13–10 Baltimore Ravens — consensus Baltimore Ravens win (100%) WRONG
- NFL: Indianapolis Colts 20–26 Tennessee Titans — consensus Indianapolis Colts win (100%) WRONG
- NFL: New England Patriots 26–19 New York Jets — consensus New England Patriots win (100%) RIGHT
- NFL: New York Giants 27–34 New Orleans Saints — consensus New Orleans Saints win (90%) RIGHT
- NFL: Philadelphia Eagles 14–25 Carolina Panthers — consensus Philadelphia Eagles win (100%) WRONG
- NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19–26 Pittsburgh Steelers — consensus Tampa Bay Buccaneers win (100%) WRONG
- NFL: Los Angeles Rams 16–18 Arizona Cardinals — consensus Los Angeles Rams win (100%) WRONG
- NFL: Kansas City Chiefs 22–6 Los Angeles Chargers — consensus Kansas City Chiefs win (100%) RIGHT
- NFL: Las Vegas Raiders 30–33 Buffalo Bills — consensus Buffalo Bills win (80%) RIGHT
The next slate is already loaded. Today's projections, with fresh consensus numbers and confidence levels from all ten models, are available on the TuringStats NFL predictions page.
Next up: today's nfl predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
