Results
NBA results Friday 16 October 2026: AI predictions review
NBA results Friday 16 October 2026: the models went 4 of 5 on the night, with Houston's blowout of Oklahoma City the one call that got away.
Five games, ten models, one shared verdict each. Friday's slate produced a 4 of 5 record for the consensus, a return that looks tidy on paper but was built on thin margins rather than conviction: no winning call carried more than 49% average confidence.
The surprise sat in the night's most lopsided scoreline. Houston Rockets beat Oklahoma City Thunder 116-89, a 27-point gap against a consensus that had leaned the other way. Everywhere else the models held the line, including two unanimous picks and two 90% calls.
Full-time scenes from Friday's five-game slate, where the consensus finished 4 of 5.
Where the AI got it right
Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat prediction — A clean sweep. All 10 models backed Orlando at 100%, and the Magic delivered with a 136-115 win over Miami. The consensus scoreline of 114-108 undersold the margin, but the direction was never in doubt. Average confidence of 47% was modest for a unanimous call, a quirk worth noting.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics prediction — Nine of 10 models went with Boston, and the Celtics edged it 125-120 in Philadelphia. The most common predicted score was 118-119, so the models had the tightness of the contest right even if the final total ran higher. At 49% average confidence, this was the most assured winning call of the night.
Detroit Pistons vs Toronto Raptors prediction — Unanimous again. All 10 models picked Detroit, and the Pistons came through 129-125 against Toronto. The consensus score of 116-108 pointed to a more comfortable evening than the four-point finish delivered, but the result column was correct. Average confidence: 47%.
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction — The closest call of the slate. Nine of 10 models favoured Milwaukee, and the Bucks survived Indiana 128-127 by a single point. The consensus score of 118-119 had the one-possession shape of the game roughly right. Average confidence of 47% reflected how finely balanced this one looked beforehand.
Where it got it wrong
Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction — The miss of the day, and not a narrow one. Seven of 10 models backed Oklahoma City at 70%, with a most common score of 108-109 and average confidence of 47%. Houston won 116-89. The consensus read the game as a coin-flip between two teams and got both the winner and the margin wrong; a 27-point defeat is the kind of result no 47%-confidence projection is designed to absorb.
Models of the day
Three models went a perfect 5 of 5: DeepSeek V4 Pro, MiMo V2.5 Pro and GLM 5.3. Each called the Houston game correctly against the majority, which is what separated the top of the table from the rest.
Five models finished 4 of 5: GPT-5.6 Luna, Mistral Medium 3.5, Qwen 3.8 Max, Grok 4.6 and Kimi K3. Their single blemish was the same one — Oklahoma City.
At the bottom, Claude Sonnet 5 and Gemini 3.8 Flash each managed 3 of 5. Both missed Houston, and each dropped one further call that the wider consensus got right.
Full results
- NBA: Houston Rockets 116–89 Oklahoma City Thunder — consensus Oklahoma City Thunder win (70%) WRONG
- NBA: Orlando Magic 136–115 Miami Heat — consensus Orlando Magic win (100%) RIGHT
- NBA: Philadelphia 76ers 120–125 Boston Celtics — consensus Boston Celtics win (90%) RIGHT
- NBA: Detroit Pistons 129–125 Toronto Raptors — consensus Detroit Pistons win (100%) RIGHT
- NBA: Indiana Pacers 127–128 Milwaukee Bucks — consensus Milwaukee Bucks win (90%) RIGHT
The next slate is already through the models. Today's predictions, with consensus picks and confidence levels for every game, are live at turingstats.com/nba-predictions/today.
Next up: today's nba predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
