Baseball results Thursday 24 September 2026: AI predictions review

Thursday 24 September 2026 delivered a bruising day for the AI consensus, which correctly predicted just 5 of 14 baseball results. The models, which had been confident on several fronts, were left to rue a series of upsets across MLB and NPB.

The biggest surprise came in Texas, where the Rangers were swept aside 7-2 by the New York Mets despite every one of the 10 models backing a Rangers win. The consensus had been unanimous, with an average confidence of 56%, but the Mets had other ideas. That result set the tone for a day that exposed the limitations of even the most confident predictions.

Where the AI got it right

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros prediction — The Mariners edged a tight contest 6-5, exactly as the models foresaw. All 10 models had picked Seattle, with the most common score being 5-4 and average confidence at 58%. The one-run margin kept the result in line with expectations.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St.Louis Cardinals prediction — Pittsburgh's 2-1 victory was another correct call, with 100% of models backing the Pirates. The consensus had expected a 5-3 scoreline, but the low-scoring affair still went the way of the home side, validating the models' confidence.

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins prediction — The Cubs' 2-1 win was a unanimous pick, with all 10 models favoring Chicago. The most common predicted score was 6-4, but the actual result was even tighter, yet the outcome matched the consensus.

Texas Rangers vs New York Mets prediction — In the second game of the double-header, Texas won 3-1, and the models were correct to back them. All 10 models had picked the Rangers, with a most common score of 5-4 and average confidence of 56%. The Rangers' narrow victory provided some redemption after the earlier loss.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction — The Yankees' 6-4 win was another unanimous call, with 100% of models predicting a New York victory. The consensus had expected a 5-3 scoreline, but the actual result was slightly higher-scoring, still aligning with the models' forecast.

Where the AI got it wrong

The day's failures were numerous and often emphatic. The most glaring miss came in Texas, where the Rangers were beaten 7-2 by the Mets despite unanimous backing from the models. The consensus had been confident, with an average confidence of 56%, but the Mets produced a dominant performance that few saw coming.

In Colorado, the Rockies fell 5-3 to the Arizona Diamondbacks, despite 60% of models favoring Colorado. The consensus had anticipated a 6-4 Rockies win, but the Diamondbacks had other plans. The same fixture later saw Arizona win again, 12-8, when only 50% of models had backed Colorado, highlighting the inconsistency in the models' calls on this matchup.

The Athletics' 7-3 victory over the Los Angeles Angels was another upset, with all 10 models having predicted an Angels win. The consensus had expected a 3-5 scoreline, but the Athletics turned the tables. Similarly, the Dodgers' 5-1 loss to the San Diego Padres defied unanimous backing for Los Angeles, with the models having anticipated a 5-3 Dodgers win.

Other misses included the Kansas City Royals' 9-1 defeat to the Chicago White Sox, where 80% of models had picked the Royals, and the Atlanta Braves' 7-6 loss to the Cincinnati Reds, despite 100% of models favoring Atlanta. In NPB, the Hiroshima Carp's 3-1 win over the Yomiuri Giants and the Nippon Ham Fighters' 6-0 loss to the Rakuten Gold. Eagles both went against unanimous predictions.

Models of the day

Five models shared the best performance, each correctly predicting 7 of 14 results: Claude Sonnet 5, Mistral Medium 3.5, Qwen 3.8 Max, Gemini 3.8 Flash, and GLM 5.3. They were followed by Grok 4.6 with 6 correct. The worst performers were GPT-5.6 Luna, DeepSeek V4 Pro, MiMo V2.5 Pro, and Kimi K3, each managing only 5 correct calls.

Full results

• MLB: Texas Rangers 2-7 New York Mets — consensus Texas Rangers win (100%) WRONG
• MLB: Colorado Rockies 3-5 Arizona Diamondbacks — consensus Colorado Rockies win (60%) WRONG
• MLB: Athletics 7-3 Los Angeles Angels — consensus Los Angeles Angels win (100%) WRONG
• MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers 1-5 San Diego Padres — consensus Los Angeles Dodgers win (100%) WRONG
• MLB: Seattle Mariners 6-5 Houston Astros — consensus Seattle Mariners win (100%) RIGHT
• MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 St.Louis Cardinals — consensus Pittsburgh Pirates win (100%) RIGHT
• MLB: Kansas City Royals 1-9 Chicago White Sox — consensus Kansas City Royals win (80%) WRONG
• MLB: Chicago Cubs 2-1 Miami Marlins — consensus Chicago Cubs win (100%) RIGHT
• MLB: Texas Rangers 3-1 New York Mets — consensus Texas Rangers win (100%) RIGHT
• MLB: Colorado Rockies 8-12 Arizona Diamondbacks — consensus Colorado Rockies win (50%) WRONG
• MLB: New York Yankees 6-4 Tampa Bay Rays — consensus New York Yankees win (100%) RIGHT
• MLB: Atlanta Braves 6-7 Cincinnati Reds — consensus Atlanta Braves win (100%) WRONG
• NPB: Hiroshima Carp 3-1 Yomiuri Giants — consensus Yomiuri Giants win (100%) WRONG
• NPB: Nippon Ham Fighters 0-6 Rakuten Gold. Eagles — consensus Nippon Ham Fighters win (100%) WRONG

For today's predictions, visit TuringStats baseball predictions.

Next up: today's baseball predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.