Results
Baseball results Thursday 1 October 2026: AI predictions review
AI models called 7 of 12 baseball results correctly on Thursday 1 October 2026. See where the consensus hit and missed.
Thursday produced 12 baseball fixtures across four leagues, and the AI consensus landed 7 of 12 correct calls. The day's headline record sits just above the break-even mark, but the margins were tighter than that figure suggests: five matches went against the models, including two where 100% of the field had agreed on the same winner.
The biggest surprise came in NPB, where Hiroshima Carp hammered Chunichi Dragons 5-1. Only 60% of models had picked Chunichi, so the consensus was already split — but the scale of the defeat was not forecast in any quarter. Elsewhere, San Diego Padres' 4-1 win over Chicago Cubs overturned a 90% consensus, and Hanshin Tigers' 2-2 draw with Yomiuri Giants denied a unanimous panel.
Full-time scenes from Thursday's baseball fixtures across four leagues.
Where the AI got it right
The panel was flawless on TSG Hawks vs Rakuten Monkeys prediction, with all 10 models backing Rakuten. The Monkeys delivered a 2-1 win, though the most common scoreline of 5-6 proved optimistic on both sides. Average confidence was 62%.
In the KBO, Doosan Bears vs NC Dinos prediction saw a unanimous Doosan call rewarded. The Bears won 9-7, a higher-scoring affair than the 6-4 most commonly projected, but the result matched the consensus at 59% average confidence.
MLB's New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox prediction was another clean sweep for the panel. The Yankees' 9-2 rout exceeded the 5-3 scoreline most models favoured, yet the winner was never in doubt. Average confidence stood at 61%.
The KBO's Samsung Lions vs Hanwha Eagles prediction also went the panel's way. Samsung edged a 3-2 contest, far tighter than the 7-4 most common score, but the unanimous Lions pick at 62% confidence held.
Finally, Rakuten Gold. Eagles vs Fukuoka S. Hawks prediction saw 90% of models on Fukuoka, and the Hawks romped to an 8-2 victory. The most common score of 4-5 understated the margin, but the call was correct at 59% average confidence.
Where it got it wrong
The panel's worst miss came in NPB, where Hiroshima Carp vs Chunichi Dragons prediction had 60% of models on Chunichi. Hiroshima won 5-1, a result that only 40% of the field saw coming. Average confidence was 58%, and the most common score of 6-7 was nowhere near the final.
In MLB, San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs prediction was a 90% consensus for Chicago. San Diego's 4-1 win made a mockery of that, with the panel's 63% average confidence offering little protection.
NPB's Hanshin Tigers vs Yomiuri Giants prediction was a unanimous Hanshin call at 61% confidence. The 2-2 draw denied all 10 models, and the most common score of 4-2 was never on the cards.
The KBO produced a surprise in KIA Tigers vs KT Wiz Suwon prediction, where 100% of models backed KIA. KT Wiz won 7-5, leaving the 60% average confidence looking misplaced.
Finally, Chiba Lotte Marines vs Nippon Ham Fighters prediction saw 80% of models on Chiba Lotte. Nippon Ham's 3-1 win was a clear upset, with the panel's 57% average confidence the lowest of any wrong call.
Models of the day
Gemini 3.8 Flash was the standout performer, correctly calling 10 of 12 matches. No other model reached double figures. GPT-5.6 Luna, Mistral Medium 3.5 and Qwen 3.8 Max each managed 8 of 12, a respectable return on a tricky day.
At the other end, six models — Claude Sonnet 5, DeepSeek V4 Pro, MiMo V2.5 Pro, Grok 4.6, Kimi K3 and GLM 5.3 — all finished on 7 of 12, matching the overall consensus record exactly. No model fell below that mark, but none of the chasing pack could close the gap on Gemini 3.8 Flash.
Full results
- CPBL: TSG Hawks 1–2 Rakuten Monkeys — consensus Rakuten Monkeys win (100%) RIGHT
- CPBL: Wei Chuan Dragons 3–4 Uni Lions — consensus Uni Lions win (100%) RIGHT
- KBO: Doosan Bears 9–7 NC Dinos — consensus Doosan Bears win (100%) RIGHT
- KBO: KIA Tigers 5–7 KT Wiz Suwon — consensus KIA Tigers win (100%) WRONG
- KBO: Samsung Lions 3–2 Hanwha Eagles — consensus Samsung Lions win (100%) RIGHT
- KBO: SSG Landers 6–5 LG Twins — consensus SSG Landers win (100%) RIGHT
- MLB: New York Yankees 9–2 Boston Red Sox — consensus New York Yankees win (100%) RIGHT
- MLB: San Diego Padres 4–1 Chicago Cubs — consensus Chicago Cubs win (90%) WRONG
- NPB: Hanshin Tigers 2–2 Yomiuri Giants — consensus Hanshin Tigers win (100%) WRONG
- NPB: Hiroshima Carp 5–1 Chunichi Dragons — consensus Chunichi Dragons win (60%) WRONG
- NPB: Rakuten Gold. Eagles 2–8 Fukuoka S. Hawks — consensus Fukuoka S. Hawks win (90%) RIGHT
- NPB: Chiba Lotte Marines 1–3 Nippon Ham Fighters — consensus Chiba Lotte Marines win (80%) WRONG
Friday brings a fresh slate of fixtures across the CPBL, KBO, MLB and NPB. The full AI predictions are available on the today's baseball predictions page.
Next up: today's baseball predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
