D. Harper
San Antonio Spurs · G · last 4 games
NBA · Regular Season
Oct 21, 2026 · 01:50
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Finished
San Antonio Spurs
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder.
Quick answer
Who will win San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
Final score: San Antonio Spurs 104–116 Oklahoma City Thunder. Before kickoff, 7 of 10 AI models pick San Antonio Spurs to win (70%); the consensus was wrong. The AI predicted score was 114–109.
Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before tip-off. Not betting advice.
10 AI models read this game. The plurality on the winner leans toward San Antonio Spurs (7 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 114–109 at 57% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.
Who do you think will win?
Vote before kick-off and compare with AI
— Consensus
Where the panel lands.
Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.
San Antonio Spurs win
70%
7 / 10 models
Oklahoma City Thunder win
30%
3 / 10 models
— Model breakdown
10 picks. Receipts attached.
Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.
Read: San Antonio Spurs win
#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-5.6 Luna
San Antonio Spurs win
114–109
53%
San Antonio won four of the five supplied recent meetings, including both home games, but Oklahoma City’s 127-point outburst shows this should remain competitive. The Spurs’ venue edge supports a narrow, moderately high-scoring win.
02
Claude Sonnet 5
Oklahoma City Thunder win
109–116
62%
Thunder are the stronger roster with elite defense and depth; Spurs competitive at home but OKC's two-way talent edge should prevail in a close contest.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Oklahoma City Thunder win
111–116
58%
Oklahoma City features superior two-way depth and shot creation, giving them a slight edge on the road against an improving Spurs defense.
04
Grok 4.6
San Antonio Spurs win
112–107
52%
Thin early-season info; May H2H was split and competitive. Home venue at Frost Bank Center gives Spurs a slight edge in a typical NBA pace game.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
San Antonio Spurs win
112–106
55%
Spurs won two of the last three H2H meetings, including a 111-103 road win, and have home-court advantage at Frost Bank Center.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
San Antonio Spurs win
115–106
58%
Spurs dominated OKC at home in May playoff series (118-91, 103-82); new season adds uncertainty but venue edge and recent H2H support San Antonio.
07
Mistral Medium 3.5
San Antonio Spurs win
114–108
62%
Spurs won 3 of last 5 vs Thunder, including recent home blowout. Home court and consistent finishing edge.
08
Kimi K3
Oklahoma City Thunder win
112–118
58%
OKC's elite defense and transition game should contain Wembanyama's Spurs, who remain inconsistent offensively despite home court at Frost Bank Center.
09
GLM 5.3
San Antonio Spurs win
113–108
53%
Spurs won four of the last five meetings, including twice at Frost Bank Center, suggesting roster parity or better; OKC remains elite, so only a narrow home lean.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
San Antonio Spurs win
115–109
58%
Spurs won the last two home H2H games and have a venue edge; Thunder's recent road form is inconsistent, making a close home win plausible.
— Scoreline frequency
How often each scoreline showed up.
1 of 6 models settled on 114–109. The rest of the list shows where dissent still lives before tip-off.
-
114–109
1 model
-
109–116
1 model
-
114–108
1 model
-
112–106
1 model
-
115–106
1 model
-
115–109
1 model
Live game centre
FinalSan Antonio Spurs
104–116
Oklahoma City Thunder| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 28 | 16 | 36 | 24 | 104 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 34 | 31 | 28 | 23 | 116 |
28
34
16
31
36
28
24
23
Pro
Live team stats, the box score and every lead change, minute by minute.
Unlock with Pro in the appStandings, rest and form
Where both teams stand, how rested they are, who carries the scoring and how their last ten games went.
AI spread
Spurs −5
AI total
223
Models picking
70%
From the mean predicted score of every model. Compare with your sportsbook's line.
Star matchup · last 3 games
DH
San Antonio Spurs · G
D. Harper
San Antonio Spurs · G
14.8
PTS
16.7
3.3
REB
4.7
3.3
AST
3
22
MIN
22
Jalen Williams
Oklahoma City Thunder · G
San Antonio Spurs
4 days of rest
· 2 games in 7 days
Oklahoma City Thunder
5 days of rest
· 1 games in 7 days
Season averages per game
San Antonio Spurs
Oklahoma City Thunder
112.7
Points
110.8
43.4%
Field goal %
46.4%
33.9%
3-point %
36.6%
80.7%
Free throw %
73%
49.2
Rebounds
45.2
24.7
Assists
25.7
19.8
Turnovers
17.3
8.5
Steals
7.3
7.2
Blocks
7.5
Ratings and four factors
Per 100 possessions. Pace is possessions per game; defence uses points allowed over the last ten.
| Spurs | Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 105.3 | 103.5 |
| Defensive rating | 99.3 | 109.3 |
| Net rating | +5.9 | -5.8 |
| Pace | 107 | 107.1 |
| Effective FG % | 50.9 | 53.9 |
| Turnover % | 18.5 | 16.2 |
| Free throw rate | 32.4 | 23.7 |
| 3-point attempt rate | 44.7 | 40.6 |
Key players · San Antonio Spurs
-
DH
D. HarperG 14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast
-
Stephon CastleG 14.5 pts · 5 reb · 4 ast -
Victor WembanyamaF 13.8 pts · 6.3 reb · 3 ast
Averages over the last 4 games.
Key players · Oklahoma City Thunder
-
Jalen WilliamsG 16.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 3 ast
-
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG 16.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 4.7 ast -
Jared McCainG 12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.3 ast
Averages over the last 3 games.
Last ten games
San Antonio Spurs
WWLL
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
- Points scored / allowed
- 115.8 / 106.3
- Total over 220.5
- 3/4
- Total over 230.5
- 1/4
- Scored 110+
- 3/4
- Won by 6+
- 2/4
Oklahoma City Thunder
LWLLL
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
- Points scored / allowed
- 109.8 / 117
- Total over 220.5
- 4/5
- Total over 230.5
- 1/5
- Scored 110+
- 4/5
- Won by 6+
- 0/5
Player photos via Wikimedia Commons: Stephon Castle by Petsbikes (CC BY-SA 4.0), Victor Wembanyama by Frenchieinportland (CC BY 4.0), Jalen Williams by Daiei Onoguchi (CC BY 4.0), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander by Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0), Jared McCain by Brady Saylor (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Player props
Prop hit rates: San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Each line sits at the player's recent average. Bars show every game, green when he went over.
Stephon Castle
San Antonio Spurs · G · last 4 games
Victor Wembanyama
San Antonio Spurs · F · last 4 games
Jalen Williams
Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 3 games
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 3 games
Jared McCain
Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 4 games
From box scores of each team's recent games. Lines are our reference points, not sportsbook prices.
San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder: quick answers
- What is the predicted total for San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
- The AI models' mean predicted score is San Antonio Spurs 114, Oklahoma City Thunder 109: a projected total of 223 points. San Antonio Spurs games went over 220.5 in 3 of the last 4; Oklahoma City Thunder games went over 220.5 in 4 of the last 5.
- What is the AI spread pick for San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
- The consensus has San Antonio Spurs winning by 5 points (114–109), from the mean of every model's predicted score.
- Who are the key players in San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
- Leading scorers over the last 3 games. San Antonio Spurs: D. Harper (14.8 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.3 ast), Stephon Castle (14.5 pts, 5 reb, 4 ast). Oklahoma City Thunder: Jalen Williams (16.7 pts, 4.7 reb, 3 ast), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (16.3 pts, 1.3 reb, 4.7 ast).
- Is San Antonio Spurs or Oklahoma City Thunder on a back-to-back?
- San Antonio Spurs have had 4 days of rest; Oklahoma City Thunder have had 5 days of rest.
— Aggregated insights
What’s moving the panel.
01
Consensus favors San Antonio Spurs
70% of models lean home — the clearest cluster on this fixture before tip-off.
02
Medium confidence
Mean 57% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.
03
Expected points tilt 112.70 vs 110.30
Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live game data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.
04
Match context
Rest, recent form and home advantage usually decide whether the favourite wins comfortably or the game stays close; check both teams below.
Ask the Council about this match
Pro10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.
Confidence trend
Cumulative average confidence in table order.
First model
Last model
Match overview
Looking for a today prediction on San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (114 - 109; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before tip-off.
This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is San Antonio Spurs win, with vote shares roughly 70% / 30% home and away (rounded).
If you are asking who will win San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.
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Ask multiple AIs about this match.
10 models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and our model picks attached — not from memory. Then ask follow-ups to the same council.