EST 0-1 INS · 48% MON 1-1 CLU · 43% GUA 2-0 ATL · 58% COL 1-2 CHI · 49% CLU 2-1 TOL · 54% YOK 1-2 KAW · 47% JEF 1-1 AVI · 42% V-V 1-0 TOK · 44% MAC 2-0 GAM · 62% AME 3-0 EYü · 71% PEC 1-1 ADO · 40% COM 2-0 VEN · 63% CER 1-2 ANT · 50% GET 0-1 SEV · 50% EST 0-1 INS · 48% MON 1-1 CLU · 43% GUA 2-0 ATL · 58% COL 1-2 CHI · 49% CLU 2-1 TOL · 54% YOK 1-2 KAW · 47% JEF 1-1 AVI · 42% V-V 1-0 TOK · 44% MAC 2-0 GAM · 62% AME 3-0 EYü · 71% PEC 1-1 ADO · 40% COM 2-0 VEN · 63% CER 1-2 ANT · 50% GET 0-1 SEV · 50%
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NBA · Regular Season FedExForum, Memphis Not Started

Memphis Grizzlies
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder.

Quick answer

Who will win Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder?

6 of 10 AI models pick Memphis Grizzlies to win (60%). The mean predicted score is 116–109 at 58% average confidence (medium).

Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before tip-off. Not betting advice.

10 AI models read this game. The plurality on the winner leans toward Memphis Grizzlies (6 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 116–109 at 58% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.

Who do you think will win?

Vote before kick-off and compare with AI

NBA standings Where Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder stand right now
— Consensus

Where the panel lands.

Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.

Memphis Grizzlies win 60%

6 / 10 models

Oklahoma City Thunder win 40%

4 / 10 models

— Model breakdown

10 picks. Receipts attached.

Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.

#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-6 Luna
Memphis Grizzlies win
114–109
56%
Memphis has the stronger early offensive profile and home court, while Oklahoma City’s defense and recent 5-0 form keep this close. The Thunder’s listed absences, especially Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, tilt the matchup toward Memphis.
02
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Memphis Grizzlies win
117–110
58%
Memphis is hotter offensively and Ty Jerome's strong form plus home court edge; OKC missing Jalen Williams recently adds risk for the visitors.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Oklahoma City Thunder win
109–114
58%
Oklahoma City boasts an elite defense allowing just 97.7 per 100 possessions and has dominated recent H2H matchups behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's steady scoring.
04
Grok 4.7
Memphis Grizzlies win
115–108
58%
Memphis’s stronger offense (118 ppg, 113.8/100) at FedExForum edges OKC’s defense; Thunder may still be without Holmgren and Williams. Early 2-0 samples keep the margin modest.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Memphis Grizzlies win
112–107
55%
Memphis has home court, better shooting and recent scoring edge, while OKC may miss key regulars. Thunder's strong defense keeps it close.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
Memphis Grizzlies win
116–105
63%
OKC missing Holmgren, J. Williams, and Wallace (~34 pts of production); Memphis hot at home with Jerome scoring 30/night and elite offensive efficiency.
07
Meta Muse Spark 1.3
Memphis Grizzlies win
116–109
60%
Memphis 4-0 with Jerome hot at FedExForum; Thunder missing Williams, Holmgren, Caruso offsets H2H edge.
08
Kimi K3
Oklahoma City Thunder win
112–116
62%
OKC's elite defense (97.7 rating) and 5-0 H2H streak outweigh Memphis's home court; Thunder's superior defensive efficiency should limit Grizzlies' scoring despite their fast pace.
09
GLM 5.3
Oklahoma City Thunder win
112–113
55%
OKC swept the last five meetings with an elite defense (97.7 per 100), while Memphis's hot 113.8 offense and FedExForum keep it close; Thunder win a tight one despite Holmgren/Williams injury uncertainty.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
Oklahoma City Thunder win
110–111
58%
OKC's defense (97.7 per 100) and 5-0 stretch outweigh Memphis' hot shooting; Thunder have won 5 straight H2H despite missing Holmgren and Williams. SGA form keeps this close at FedExForum.
— Scoreline frequency

How often each scoreline showed up.

1 of 6 models settled on 116–109. The rest of the list shows where dissent still lives before tip-off.

  • 116–109
    1 model
  • 114–109
    1 model
  • 117–110
    1 model
  • 112–107
    1 model
  • 116–105
    1 model
  • 110–111
    1 model

Standings, rest and form

Where both teams stand, how rested they are, who carries the scoring and how their last ten games went.

AI spread
Grizzlies −7
AI total
225
Models picking
60%

From the mean predicted score of every model. Compare with your sportsbook's line.

Star matchup · last 5 games
Ty Jerome
Ty Jerome
Memphis Grizzlies · G
25.8 PTS 26
3.2 REB 4.4
5.6 AST 3.4
30 MIN 33
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Oklahoma City Thunder · G

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · #3 Western
Home 1-0 · Away 3-0 · Last ten 4-0 · Streak W4
2 days of rest · 3 games in 7 days

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · #5 Western
Home 3-0 · Away 1-1 · Last ten 4-1 · Streak L1
2 days of rest · 3 games in 7 days
Full NBA standings & playoff race →

Did not play last game

Regulars missing from the latest box score: injury, rest or suspension. Check the status before tip-off.

  • Jalen Williams
    Jalen Williams Thunder · G
    32 min · 13.7 pts a game before
  • Chet Holmgren
    Chet Holmgren Thunder · C
    30 min · 12 pts a game before
  • Alex Caruso
    Alex Caruso Thunder · G
    22 min · 9.3 pts a game before

Season averages per game

Memphis Grizzlies Oklahoma City Thunder
118 Points 109
46.1% Field goal % 45.3%
39.4% 3-point % 33.1%
82.4% Free throw % 78.9%
46.1 Rebounds 45.4
27.3 Assists 24
16.4 Turnovers 16.4
8.9 Steals 7.8
4 Blocks 6.9

Ratings and four factors

Per 100 possessions. Pace is possessions per game; defence uses points allowed over the last ten.

GrizzliesThunder
Offensive rating 113.9 104.2
Defensive rating 102.5 101.2
Net rating +11.4 +3.1
Pace 103.6 104.6
Effective FG % 54.6 51.7
Turnover % 15.9 15.7
Free throw rate 29.3 23.4
3-point attempt rate 43.3 38.8

Key players · Memphis Grizzlies

  • Ty Jerome
    Ty JeromeG 25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast
  • CB
    C. BoozerF 15.8 pts · 10.8 reb · 6.2 ast
  • CC
    C. CowardF 13.8 pts · 9 reb · 2.8 ast

Averages over the last 5 games.

Key players · Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG 26 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.4 ast
  • Ajay Mitchell
    Ajay MitchellG 18.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.6 ast
  • Jalen Williams
    Jalen WilliamsG 13.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 3.3 ast

Averages over the last 5 games.

Last ten games

Memphis Grizzlies WWWWW
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
Points scored / allowed
118.2 / 106.2
Total over 220.5
3/5
Total over 230.5
1/5
Scored 110+
5/5
Won by 6+
3/5
Oklahoma City Thunder LWWWWW
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
Points scored / allowed
109.2 / 105.8
Total over 220.5
2/6
Total over 230.5
1/6
Scored 110+
3/6
Won by 6+
4/6

Player photos via Wikimedia Commons: Ty Jerome by SneakinDeacon from New River Valley, Va, United States (CC BY-SA 2.0), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander by Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0), Ajay Mitchell by Daiei Onoguchi (CC BY 4.0), Jalen Williams by Daiei Onoguchi (CC BY 4.0), Jaylen Wells by Senior Airman TraVonna Hawkins (Public domain), Chet Holmgren by Steve Cheng, Bruin Report Online (CC BY 2.0), Alex Caruso by All-Pro Reels (CC BY-SA 2.0).

Player props

Prop hit rates: Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Each line sits at the player's recent average. Bars show every game, green when he went over.

Ty Jerome

Ty Jerome

Memphis Grizzlies · G · last 5 games
Points o25.5 3/5 · 60% Ask AI
45
28
31
15
10
Assists o5.5 3/5 · 60% Ask AI
6
5
6
8
3
Pts + Reb + Ast o34.5 3/5 · 60% Ask AI
58
35
41
24
15
3-pointers made o2.5 2/5 · 40% Ask AI
5
3
1
1
1
CB

C. Boozer

Memphis Grizzlies · F · last 5 games
Points o15.5 3/5 · 60% Ask AI
7
25
16
13
18
Rebounds o10.5 4/5 · 80% Ask AI
11
13
11
7
12
Assists o6.5 1/5 · 20% Ask AI
5
6
4
4
12
Pts + Reb + Ast o32.5 2/5 · 40% Ask AI
23
44
31
24
42
3-pointers made o2.5 2/5 · 40% Ask AI
0
4
2
1
4
Jaylen Wells

Jaylen Wells

Memphis Grizzlies · F · last 5 games
Points o13.5 3/5 · 60% Ask AI
12
17
16
14
10
Pts + Reb + Ast o18.5 2/5 · 40% Ask AI
17
24
24
17
11
3-pointers made o2.5 1/5 · 20% Ask AI
1
4
2
2
2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 6 games
Points o24.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
15
32
17
34
26
21
Assists o3.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
6
4
3
5
3
2
Pts + Reb + Ast o31.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
21
41
22
45
32
29
3-pointers made o1.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
1
3
3
1
1
1
Ajay Mitchell

Ajay Mitchell

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 5 games
Points o18.5 2/5 · 40% Ask AI
4
12
18
30
29
Assists o3.5 3/5 · 60% Ask AI
6
0
4
5
3
Pts + Reb + Ast o25.5 3/5 · 60% Ask AI
15
12
28
37
36
Jalen Williams

Jalen Williams

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 4 games
Points o14.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
16
12
21
8
Rebounds o4.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
4
7
5
2
Assists o3.5 1/4 · 25% Ask AI
3
2
3
5
Pts + Reb + Ast o22.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
23
21
29
15

From box scores of each team's recent games. Lines are our reference points, not sportsbook prices.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder: quick answers

What is the predicted total for Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
The AI models' mean predicted score is Memphis Grizzlies 116, Oklahoma City Thunder 109: a projected total of 225 points. Memphis Grizzlies games went over 230.5 in 1 of the last 5; Oklahoma City Thunder games went over 230.5 in 1 of the last 6.
What is the AI spread pick for Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
The consensus has Memphis Grizzlies winning by 7 points (116–109), from the mean of every model's predicted score.
Who are the key players in Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
Leading scorers over the last 5 games. Memphis Grizzlies: Ty Jerome (25.8 pts, 3.2 reb, 5.6 ast), C. Boozer (15.8 pts, 10.8 reb, 6.2 ast). Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (26 pts, 4.4 reb, 3.4 ast), Ajay Mitchell (18.6 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.6 ast).
Is Memphis Grizzlies or Oklahoma City Thunder on a back-to-back?
Memphis Grizzlies have had 2 days of rest; Oklahoma City Thunder have had 2 days of rest.
— Aggregated insights

What’s moving the panel.

01
Consensus favors Memphis Grizzlies

60% of models lean home — the clearest cluster on this fixture before tip-off.

02
Medium confidence

Mean 58% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.

03
Expected points tilt 113.30 vs 110.20

Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live game data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.

04
Match context

Rest, recent form and home advantage usually decide whether the favourite wins comfortably or the game stays close; check both teams below.

Ask the Council about this match

Pro

10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.

Ask with match data Ask without data (free)

Confidence trend

Cumulative average confidence in table order.

First model Last model

Match overview

Looking for a today prediction on Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (116 - 109; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before tip-off.

This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is Memphis Grizzlies win, with vote shares roughly 60% / 40% home and away (rounded).

If you are asking who will win Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.

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Keep browsing today prediction coverage and league hubs.

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