FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37% FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37%
TuringStats
AI consensus
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NBA · Regular Season Toyota Center (Houston), Houston Not Started

Houston Rockets
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder.

Quick answer

Who will win Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder?

8 of 10 AI models pick Houston Rockets to win (80%). The mean predicted score is 116–110 at 57% average confidence (medium).

Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before tip-off. Not betting advice.

10 AI models read this game. The plurality on the winner leans toward Houston Rockets (8 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 116–110 at 57% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.

Who do you think will win?

Vote before kick-off and compare with AI

NBA standings Where Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder stand right now
— Consensus

Where the panel lands.

Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.

Houston Rockets win 80%

8 / 10 models

Oklahoma City Thunder win 20%

2 / 10 models

— Model breakdown

10 picks. Receipts attached.

Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.

#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-6 Luna
Houston Rockets win
116–111
57%
Houston’s stronger offense and recent scoring form support the home edge, but the back-to-back and Oklahoma City’s three-day rest should keep this close despite missing Thunder regulars.
02
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Houston Rockets win
116–108
56%
Houston's hot 3-0 form and stronger efficiency edge the matchup, but back-to-back fatigue and OKC missing three regulars balance out, keeping margin modest.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Oklahoma City Thunder win
108–113
58%
Houston is on the second night of a back-to-back, facing an elite OKC defense with three full days of rest and preparation to control the tempo.
04
Grok 4.7
Houston Rockets win
114–108
58%
Rockets' elite offense and home form outweigh a B2B; Thunder rest helps but Holmgren and Williams absences blunt their defense and scoring.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Houston Rockets win
116–109
58%
Rockets are 3-0 with a top-5 offense and home court, but OKC's elite defense and extra rest keep this close. Houston's back-to-back fatigue narrows the margin.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
Houston Rockets win
116–104
62%
Houston's Durant-Sengun duo outclasses depleted OKC missing Holmgren and possibly Williams; back-to-back fatigue limits margin but talent edge prevails at home.
07
Meta Muse Spark 1.3
Houston Rockets win
116–110
56%
Rockets 5-0 with elite 119.5 offense at Toyota Center outweighs back-to-back fatigue; Thunder defense strong but scoring only 109 and missing rotation pieces.
08
Kimi K3
Oklahoma City Thunder win
112–116
58%
Houston's second night of a back-to-back and 16% turnover rate face OKC's fresh legs and elite 97.7 defensive rating; Thunder's rest advantage and defensive discipline should edge a high-possession contest despite Rockets' home court.
09
GLM 5.3
Houston Rockets win
113–108
53%
Houston's 118.8 offense and Sengun/Durant form edge out OKC's elite defense, but the back-to-back and OKC's rest keep this close; recent H2H games were tight.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
Houston Rockets win
114–107
58%
Houston's 121.5 ppg offense and Sengun/Durant form face a Thunder team missing Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Wallace; Rockets' back-to-back rest edge trims margin, but home court and shooting decide it.
— Scoreline frequency

How often each scoreline showed up.

1 of 6 models settled on 116–110. The rest of the list shows where dissent still lives before tip-off.

  • 116–110
    1 model
  • 116–111
    1 model
  • 116–108
    1 model
  • 116–109
    1 model
  • 116–104
    1 model
  • 114–107
    1 model

Standings, rest and form

Where both teams stand, how rested they are, who carries the scoring and how their last ten games went.

AI spread
Rockets −6
AI total
226
Models picking
80%

From the mean predicted score of every model. Compare with your sportsbook's line.

Star matchup · last 3 games
AS
Alperen Sengun
Houston Rockets · C
25 PTS 26
8.7 REB 4.4
7.7 AST 3.4
35 MIN 33
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Oklahoma City Thunder · G

Houston Rockets

5-0 · #1 Western
Home 2-0 · Away 3-0 · Last ten 5-0 · Streak W5
Back-to-back: played last night · 4 games in 7 days

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · #5 Western
Home 3-0 · Away 1-1 · Last ten 4-1 · Streak L1
3 days of rest · 3 games in 7 days
Full NBA standings & playoff race →

Did not play last game

Regulars missing from the latest box score: injury, rest or suspension. Check the status before tip-off.

  • AS
    Alperen Sengun Rockets · C
    35 min · 25 pts a game before
  • Reed Sheppard
    Reed Sheppard Rockets · G
    26 min · 13 pts a game before
  • Jalen Williams
    Jalen Williams Thunder · G
    32 min · 13.7 pts a game before
  • Chet Holmgren
    Chet Holmgren Thunder · C
    30 min · 12 pts a game before
  • Alex Caruso
    Alex Caruso Thunder · G
    22 min · 9.3 pts a game before

Season averages per game

Houston Rockets Oklahoma City Thunder
121.3 Points 109
48.7% Field goal % 45.3%
37.1% 3-point % 33.1%
78.3% Free throw % 78.9%
46.1 Rebounds 45.4
28.6 Assists 24
16.4 Turnovers 16.4
10.8 Steals 7.8
5.4 Blocks 6.9

Ratings and four factors

Per 100 possessions. Pace is possessions per game; defence uses points allowed over the last ten.

RocketsThunder
Offensive rating 118.1 104.2
Defensive rating 107.1 101.2
Net rating +11 +3.1
Pace 102.7 104.6
Effective FG % 56.3 51.7
Turnover % 16 15.7
Free throw rate 31.3 23.4
3-point attempt rate 41 38.8

Key players · Houston Rockets

  • AS
    Alperen SengunC 25 pts · 8.7 reb · 7.7 ast
  • Kevin Durant
    Kevin DurantF 22 pts · 6 reb · 3.2 ast
  • Amen Thompson
    Amen ThompsonG 18 pts · 6.6 reb · 4.2 ast

Averages over the last 3 games.

Key players · Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG 26 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.4 ast
  • Ajay Mitchell
    Ajay MitchellG 18.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.6 ast
  • Jalen Williams
    Jalen WilliamsG 13.7 pts · 4.7 reb · 3.3 ast

Averages over the last 5 games.

Last ten games

Houston Rockets LWWWWW
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
Points scored / allowed
121 / 110
Total over 220.5
6/6
Total over 230.5
3/6
Scored 110+
6/6
Won by 6+
4/6
Oklahoma City Thunder LWWWWW
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
Points scored / allowed
109.2 / 105.8
Total over 220.5
2/6
Total over 230.5
1/6
Scored 110+
3/6
Won by 6+
4/6

Player photos via Wikimedia Commons: Kevin Durant by Clément Bardot (CC BY-SA 4.0), Amen Thompson by Pikraken (CC BY 4.0), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander by Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0), Ajay Mitchell by Daiei Onoguchi (CC BY 4.0), Jalen Williams by Daiei Onoguchi (CC BY 4.0), Reed Sheppard by Brady Saylor (CC BY-SA 4.0), Chet Holmgren by Steve Cheng, Bruin Report Online (CC BY 2.0), Alex Caruso by All-Pro Reels (CC BY-SA 2.0).

Player props

Prop hit rates: Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Each line sits at the player's recent average. Bars show every game, green when he went over.

AS

Alperen Sengun

Houston Rockets · C · last 4 games
Points o24.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
23
29
17
29
Rebounds o9.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
10
7
10
9
Assists o7.5 1/4 · 25% Ask AI
5
7
7
9
Pts + Reb + Ast o40.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
38
43
34
47
3-pointers made o1.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
2
2
1
1
Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant

Houston Rockets · F · last 6 games
Points o23.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
30
20
22
22
18
28
Rebounds o6.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
6
7
4
9
5
5
Assists o3.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
3
6
2
3
4
1
Pts + Reb + Ast o32.5 4/6 · 67% Ask AI
39
33
28
34
27
34
3-pointers made o1.5 4/6 · 67% Ask AI
2
2
3
1
2
1
Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson

Houston Rockets · G · last 6 games
Points o17.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
16
20
17
15
23
15
Rebounds o7.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
10
10
11
5
4
3
Assists o4.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
4
4
6
2
3
6
Pts + Reb + Ast o29.5 4/6 · 67% Ask AI
30
34
34
22
30
24
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 6 games
Points o24.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
15
32
17
34
26
21
Assists o3.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
6
4
3
5
3
2
Pts + Reb + Ast o31.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
21
41
22
45
32
29
3-pointers made o1.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
1
3
3
1
1
1
Ajay Mitchell

Ajay Mitchell

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 5 games
Points o18.5 2/5 · 40% Ask AI
4
12
18
30
29
Assists o3.5 3/5 · 60% Ask AI
6
0
4
5
3
Pts + Reb + Ast o25.5 3/5 · 60% Ask AI
15
12
28
37
36
Jalen Williams

Jalen Williams

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 4 games
Points o14.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
16
12
21
8
Rebounds o4.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
4
7
5
2
Assists o3.5 1/4 · 25% Ask AI
3
2
3
5
Pts + Reb + Ast o22.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
23
21
29
15

From box scores of each team's recent games. Lines are our reference points, not sportsbook prices.

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder: quick answers

What is the predicted total for Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
The AI models' mean predicted score is Houston Rockets 116, Oklahoma City Thunder 110: a projected total of 226 points. Houston Rockets games went over 230.5 in 3 of the last 6; Oklahoma City Thunder games went over 230.5 in 1 of the last 6.
What is the AI spread pick for Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
The consensus has Houston Rockets winning by 6 points (116–110), from the mean of every model's predicted score.
Who are the key players in Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
Leading scorers over the last 3 games. Houston Rockets: Alperen Sengun (25 pts, 8.7 reb, 7.7 ast), Kevin Durant (22 pts, 6 reb, 3.2 ast). Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (26 pts, 4.4 reb, 3.4 ast), Ajay Mitchell (18.6 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.6 ast).
Is Houston Rockets or Oklahoma City Thunder on a back-to-back?
Houston Rockets are on the second night of a back-to-back; Oklahoma City Thunder have had 3 days of rest.
— Aggregated insights

What’s moving the panel.

01
Consensus favors Houston Rockets

80% of models lean home — the clearest cluster on this fixture before tip-off.

02
Medium confidence

Mean 57% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.

03
Expected points tilt 114.10 vs 109.40

Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live game data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.

04
Match context

Rest, recent form and home advantage usually decide whether the favourite wins comfortably or the game stays close; check both teams below.

Ask the Council about this match

Pro

10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.

Ask with match data Ask without data (free)

Confidence trend

Cumulative average confidence in table order.

First model Last model

Match overview

Looking for a today prediction on Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (116 - 110; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before tip-off.

This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is Houston Rockets win, with vote shares roughly 80% / 20% home and away (rounded).

If you are asking who will win Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.

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Keep browsing today prediction coverage and league hubs.

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