EST 0-1 INS · 48% MON 1-1 CLU · 43% GUA 2-0 ATL · 58% COL 1-2 CHI · 49% CLU 2-1 TOL · 54% YOK 1-2 KAW · 47% JEF 1-1 AVI · 42% V-V 1-0 TOK · 44% MAC 2-0 GAM · 62% AME 3-0 EYü · 71% PEC 1-1 ADO · 40% COM 2-0 VEN · 63% CER 1-2 ANT · 50% GET 0-1 SEV · 50% EST 0-1 INS · 48% MON 1-1 CLU · 43% GUA 2-0 ATL · 58% COL 1-2 CHI · 49% CLU 2-1 TOL · 54% YOK 1-2 KAW · 47% JEF 1-1 AVI · 42% V-V 1-0 TOK · 44% MAC 2-0 GAM · 62% AME 3-0 EYü · 71% PEC 1-1 ADO · 40% COM 2-0 VEN · 63% CER 1-2 ANT · 50% GET 0-1 SEV · 50%
UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4 Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz Match Finished · 90'

Sturm Graz
vs
Marseille.

Quick answer

Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?

Final score: Sturm Graz 1–0 Marseille. Before kickoff, 7 of 10 AI models pick Marseille to win (70%); the consensus was wrong. The AI predicted score was 0–1.

Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before kickoff. Not betting advice.

Head-to-head history → Sturm Graz form Marseille form

10 AI models read this match. The plurality on 1X2 leans toward Marseille (7 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 0–1 at 48% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.

Who do you think will win?

Vote before kick-off and compare with AI

UEFA Europa League table Where Sturm Graz and Marseille stand right now
— Consensus

Where the panel lands.

Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.

Sturm Graz win 10%

1 / 10 models

Draw 20%

2 / 10 models

Marseille win 70%

7 / 10 models

— Model breakdown

10 picks. Receipts attached.

Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.

#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-6 Luna
Marseille win
0–1
46%
Both teams have struggled in the group stage, but Sturm’s depleted squad includes absent creator O. Kiteishvili and striker S. Jatta. Marseille’s stronger defensive personnel and attacking quality narrowly outweigh Sturm’s home advantage in a likely low-scoring match.
02
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Sturm Graz win
2–1
46%
Both winless in Europe this season, but Marseille's defense has conceded heavily (5 goals in 2) while Sturm Graz get home advantage at Liebenau.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Marseille win
0–2
58%
Sturm Graz have an extensive injury list and have failed to score in the competition. Marseille's superior individual quality in attack should see them secure a routine victory.
04
Grok 4.7
Draw
1–1
38%
Both sides are goalless or nearly so in this UEL stage and missing key pieces; Graz home edge offsets Marseille quality, pointing to a tight low-scoring stalemate.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Marseille win
0–1
48%
Sturm Graz have failed to score in both Europa League matches and carry many injuries; Marseille's stronger squad should edge a low-scoring game despite their own poor form.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
Marseille win
0–1
38%
Sturm Graz have scored zero UEL goals this season and are missing key attackers; Marseille's superior squad quality should edge a low-scoring affair despite their own poor form.
07
Mistral Medium 3.5
Marseille win
0–1
62%
Marseille’s stronger squad depth and Sturm Graz’s attacking struggles (0 goals in 2 EL games) favor a narrow away win.
08
Kimi K3
Marseille win
0–1
52%
Sturm Graz missing several starters including Kiteishvili and have failed to score twice in Europe; Marseille also winless but field a stronger XI with Gouiri and Maupay, so a narrow away edge.
09
GLM 5.3
Marseille win
0–1
50%
Sturm Graz have failed to score in both Europa League games (0-3) and miss key creators like Kiteishvili; Marseille's deeper squad edges a low-scoring away win despite their own poor start.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
Draw
1–1
42%
Both sides poor in Europe (Sturm 0-3, Marseille 1-5) with Sturm's heavy absentee list; Graz's home edge is offset by Marseille's superior squad, so a low-scoring draw fits best.
— Scoreline frequency

How often each scoreline showed up.

6 of 10 models settled on 0–1. That convergence is a strong scoreline signal—many fixtures fan out wider across the panel.

  • 0–1
    6 models
  • 1–1
    2 models
  • 0–2
    1 model
  • 2–1
    1 model

Live match centre

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Sturm Graz
Oumar Diakité 13'
1–0
Marseille
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Bookmakers vs the AI panel

Bet365 · 4.10 / 3.70 / 1.85
Sturm Graz Market 23% · AI 10%
Draw Market 26% · AI 20%
Marseille Market 51% · AI 70%

Grey: bookmaker prices as probabilities, margin removed. Lime: share of the 10 AI models picking each result.

Team news

Confirmed lineups: Sturm Graz vs Marseille

Sturm Graz

3-4-1-2
F. Ingolitsch
19 S. Seidl
19 Seidl
14 O. Diakité
14 Diakité
78 V. Matoshi
78 Matoshi
43 Jacob Peter Hödl
43 Hödl
39 Luca Weinhandl
39 Weinhandl
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
4 Stankovič
28 J. Heil
28 Heil
30 P. Koller
30 Koller
2 J. Quarshie
2 Quarshie
23 A. Malic
23 Malic
22 A. Helac
22 Helac

Bench: B. Beganović, L. Balbo, M. Grgic, J. Halwachs, A. Kayombo, E. Lorenz, P. Petrović, A. Vallci, C. Wiener-Pucher

Marseille

4-3-3
Bruno Genesio
11 N. Maupay
11 Maupay
9 A. Gouiri
9 Gouiri
48 K. Abdallah
48 Abdallah
7 A. Gomes
7 Gomes
19 G. Kondogbia
19 Kondogbia
42
42 Kamissoko
25 U. Garcia
25 Garcia
21 N. Aguerd
21 Aguerd
18 B. Meité
18 Meité
74 K. Bezahaf
74 Bezahaf
12 J. de Lange
12 Lange

Bench: A. Harit, P. Højbjerg, T. Mmadi, T. Nnadi, Igor Paixão, T. Weah, Antoine Valero, H. Abdelli, Emerson, C. Egan-Riley, Ibrahim Gomis, J. Van Neck

Season data

UEFA Europa League numbers for both sides, when they score and the players who carry them.

Sturm Graz

5-3-2
W-D-L
1-1-1
Goals
1-3
Clean sheets
2
Failed to score
2
Best win run
0
Penalties
0/0
When they score
15'30'45'60'75'90'
When they concede
15'30'45'60'75'90'

Marseille

4-2-3-1
W-D-L
0-0-3
Goals
1-6
Clean sheets
0
Failed to score
2
Best win run
0
Penalties
0/0
When they score
15'30'45'60'75'90'
When they concede
15'30'45'60'75'90'

Top scorers · UEFA Europa League

  1. 1 L. Diony Omonia Nicosia 4
  2. 2 A. Cissè AC Milan 3
  3. 3 Yeremy Pino Crystal Palace 3
  4. 4 Sergio Gómez Real Sociedad 3
  5. 5 K. Zachariassen Ferencvarosi TC 3
Venue Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz
Referee Nenad Minakovic
New at Sturm Graz O. Diakité (Reims), J. Quarshie (Southampton), V. Matoshi (FC Thun)
New at Marseille H. Traorè (Bournemouth), F. Medina (Lens), T. Weah (Juventus)
— Aggregated insights

What’s moving the panel.

01
Consensus favors Marseille

70% of models lean away — the clearest cluster on this fixture before kickoff.

02
Medium confidence

Mean 48% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.

03
xG tilt 0.40 vs 1.10

Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live match data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.

04
Match context

Expected-goals tilt and home-field rhythm (see xG on this page) usually explain whether the game stays open or compresses late.

Ask the Council about this match

Pro

10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.

Result check

Actual Sturm Graz win · AI Marseille win

1X2: Miss Score: Off
— Match context

Form, history, team news.

Sturm Graz
#19 · 4 PTS · GD -2
Last 5
L D W W L
11 GF · 9 GA
Recent fixtures
  • Austria Lustenau 3-2 L
  • Ried 2-2 D
  • Marseille 1-0 W
  • Grazer AK 6-1 W
  • Bournemouth 3-0 L
Team news
N. Geyrhofer — Off the roster L. Grgic — Knee Injury S. Jatta — Shoulder Injury D. Khudyakov — Inactive O. Kiteishvili — Calf Injury G. Mamageishvili — Injury F. Rozga — Muscle Injury E. Soglo — Muscle Injury N. Weiper — Injury S. Wlodarczyk — Off the roster
Marseille
#34 · 0 PTS · GD -5
Last 5
W L W L W
11 GF · 7 GA
Recent fixtures
  • Le Havre 4-3 W
  • Sturm Graz 1-0 L
  • Angers 2-5 W
  • Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 L
  • Estac Troyes 0-2 W
Team news
D. Cornelius — Hip Injury A. Koum Mbondo — Inactive F. Moumbagna — Inactive
— Head to head

Last five meetings.

STU 1 · D 0 · MAR 0

STU VS MAR
1-0
HOME WIN
Oct 22, 2026

Confidence trend

Cumulative average confidence in table order.

First model Last model

Betting tips (AI-signal view)

Educational only — not financial advice. We summarize how the AI picks cluster so you can cross-check with your own staking plan.

  • Lean with the plurality: when 10% of models side with Sturm Graz, treat that as the default script unless late team news breaks the assumptions.
  • Watch the draw lane at 20% — tight UEFA Europa League games often compress toward stalemates when both midfields win the second-ball.
  • If you chase “best bets today” narratives, require alignment between the headline pick and the score-frequency table; conflicting signals usually mean thinner edge.

Odds & analysis (implied probabilities)

Implied fair percentages from the model vote share (normalized to 100%) approximate how a balanced market might price the 1X2 if it mirrored this panel — useful for odds analysis homework even though we do not quote sportsbook ticks here.

Sturm Graz
~10%
implied lean
Draw
~20%
implied lean
Marseille
~70%
implied lean

Over / under prediction (totals)

Model-derived xG sums to 1.50 goals in expectation. A notional totals line near 1.8 is consistent with that pace (rounded for readability). If your sportsbook posts a similar number, compare juice and live team news before deciding either side of the total.

Handicap prediction (spread-style read)

When Sturm Graz is priced as the stronger side in the model vote, a −1 handicap narrative only clears if the most common scorelines include multi-goal wins. Cross-check the score-frequency list: if tight one-goal wins dominate, Asian handicaps near pick’em or −0.5 / −0.75 splits often fit the story better than a full −1.5 sell.

BTTS prediction (both teams to score)

With combined offensive weight near 1.50 xG, a heuristic “both teams score” prior lands around 55% yes before defensive adjustments. If several top models forecast clean-sheet pathways, downgrade BTTS enthusiasm even when the raw xG sum looks juicy.

Best bet framing (consensus-led)

Our headline best bet label follows the consensus recommendation: Marseille win. Pair that with the confidence band (Medium) — high dispersion across models usually argues for smaller stake or pass, even when the headline pick looks tempting for a today prediction card on social.

Match overview

Looking for a today prediction on Sturm Graz vs Marseille in UEFA Europa League? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (0 - 1; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before kickoff.

This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is Marseille win, with vote shares roughly 10% / 20% / 70% home, draw, and away (rounded).

If you are asking who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.

Explore more

Keep browsing today prediction coverage and league hubs.

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— Journal

Articles linked to these clubs or AI forecasting.

Ask multiple AIs about this match.

10 models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and our model picks attached — not from memory. Then ask follow-ups to the same council.