EST 0-1 INS · 48% MON 1-1 CLU · 43% GUA 2-0 ATL · 58% COL 1-2 CHI · 49% CLU 2-1 TOL · 54% YOK 1-2 KAW · 47% JEF 1-1 AVI · 42% V-V 1-0 TOK · 44% MAC 2-0 GAM · 62% AME 3-0 EYü · 71% PEC 1-1 ADO · 40% COM 2-0 VEN · 63% CER 1-2 ANT · 50% GET 0-1 SEV · 50% EST 0-1 INS · 48% MON 1-1 CLU · 43% GUA 2-0 ATL · 58% COL 1-2 CHI · 49% CLU 2-1 TOL · 54% YOK 1-2 KAW · 47% JEF 1-1 AVI · 42% V-V 1-0 TOK · 44% MAC 2-0 GAM · 62% AME 3-0 EYü · 71% PEC 1-1 ADO · 40% COM 2-0 VEN · 63% CER 1-2 ANT · 50% GET 0-1 SEV · 50%
UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4 Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan Match Finished · 90'

Ararat-Armenia
vs
AZ Alkmaar.

Quick answer

Who will win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?

Final score: Ararat-Armenia 0–4 AZ Alkmaar. Before kickoff, 10 of 10 AI models pick AZ Alkmaar to win (100%); the consensus was right. The AI predicted score was 1–2.

Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before kickoff. Not betting advice.

Head-to-head history → Ararat-Armenia form AZ Alkmaar form

All 10 AIs agree. When the whole council agrees, it has been right 62% of the time (806 matches).

10 AI models read this match. The plurality on 1X2 leans toward AZ Alkmaar (10 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 1–2 at 54% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.

Who do you think will win?

Vote before kick-off and compare with AI

UEFA Europa League table Where Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar stand right now
— Consensus

Where the panel lands.

Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.

Ararat-Armenia win 0%

0 / 10 models

Draw 0%

0 / 10 models

AZ Alkmaar win 100%

10 / 10 models

— Model breakdown

10 picks. Receipts attached.

Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.

#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-6 Luna
AZ Alkmaar win
0–1
62%
AZ Alkmaar’s stronger squad and European-level experience outweigh Ararat-Armenia’s home advantage. Ararat have conceded eight goals in four matches, but AZ’s modest scoring record and several absences point toward a narrow, low-scoring away win.
02
Claude Sonnet 5.5
AZ Alkmaar win
1–2
48%
AZ have stronger squad pedigree despite patchy European form; Ararat leak goals defensively (8 conceded) but score at home, favoring a tight away win.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
AZ Alkmaar win
0–2
62%
AZ Alkmaar possess superior overall quality and technical control. Despite the long travel to Yerevan, Ararat-Armenia's leaky defense should allow the Dutch side to secure a comfortable, clean-sheet victory.
04
Grok 4.7
AZ Alkmaar win
1–2
42%
Clear quality gap favors AZ despite Yerevan travel. Ararat leak goals in Europe (4-8); AZ’s UEL output is modest, so a narrow 1-2 away win fits better than a blowout.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
AZ Alkmaar win
1–2
56%
AZ Alkmaar bring superior Eredivisie quality despite rotation; Ararat-Armenia have scored in every UEL game but concede regularly. Expect an away win with the hosts pulling one back.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
AZ Alkmaar win
1–2
42%
AZ's superior Eredivisie quality should prevail despite absences, but Ararat-Armenia score in every Europa League game and AZ have no clean sheets, supporting both sides finding the net.
07
Mistral Medium 3.5
AZ Alkmaar win
0–1
62%
AZ Alkmaar's stronger Europa League form and Ararat-Armenia's defensive struggles (8 goals conceded in 4 games) suggest a narrow away win.
08
Kimi K3
AZ Alkmaar win
0–2
58%
AZ's superior European pedigree and Ararat's defensive record (8 conceded in 4) point to an away win, though AZ's missing attackers and Yerevan travel temper the margin.
09
GLM 5.3
AZ Alkmaar win
2–3
55%
AZ's deeper squad and European pedigree edge it, but Ararat have scored in every league game this season, so a narrow 2-1 away win in Yerevan fits.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
AZ Alkmaar win
1–2
48%
AZ's deeper squad and Ararat's 1W 1D 2L, 4-8 Europa League record tilt it, though Yerevan venue and AZ's Clasie doubt keep it close; late goals favor AZ.
— Scoreline frequency

How often each scoreline showed up.

5 of 10 models settled on 1–2. That convergence is a strong scoreline signal—many fixtures fan out wider across the panel.

  • 1–2
    5 models
  • 0–1
    2 models
  • 0–2
    2 models
  • 2–3
    1 model

Live match centre

Full-time
Ararat-Armenia
0–4
AZ Alkmaar
Valdemar Byskov Andreasen 21'
Weslley Pinto Batista 27', 76'
Mexx Meerdink 79'
Pro

Momentum, live stats, xG, player ratings and every event, minute by minute.

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Bookmakers vs the AI panel

Bet365 · 8.00 / 5.00 / 1.38
Ararat-Armenia Market 12% · AI 0%
Draw Market 19% · AI 0%
AZ Alkmaar Market 69% · AI 100%

Grey: bookmaker prices as probabilities, margin removed. Lime: share of the 10 AI models picking each result.

Team news

Confirmed lineups: Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar

Ararat-Armenia

4-3-3
Tulipa
7 Z. Shaghoyan
7 Shaghoyan
91 Sandro Lima
91 Lima
77 A. Serobyan
77 Serobyan
17 M. Carlier
17 Carlier
8 J. Balanta
8 Balanta
10 A. Ambartsumyan
10 Ambartsumyan
16 E. Grigoryan
16 Grigoryan
47 A. Malis
47 Malis
43 Bruno Wilson
43 Wilson
2 Hugo Oliveira
2 Oliveira
98 João Bravim
98 Bravim

Bench: A. Ndour, A. Eloyan, Luís Felipe, Bruno Pereira, K. Muradyan, A. Nersesyan, B. Oliveira, França

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
L. Echteld
24 A. Oufkir
24 Oufkir
18 B. Kovacs
18 Kovacs
7 Weslley Patati
7 Patati
21 D. Kwakman
21 Kwakman
17 V. Byskov
17 Byskov
6 P. Koopmeiners
6 Koopmeiners
34 M. de Wit
34 Wit
29 W. Hoedt
29 Hoedt
4 L. Schouten
4 Schouten
2 S. Maikuma
2 Maikuma
28 J. De Busser
28 Busser

Bench: H. de Wit, H. Verhulst, C. Stengs, R. Owusu-Oduro, M. Meerdink, D. Kasius, R. Ichihara, E. Dijkstra, R. Daal, M. Chávez, Wassim bouziane, Jerolldino Bergraaf

Season data

UEFA Europa League numbers for both sides, when they score and the players who carry them.

Ararat-Armenia

4-3-3
W-D-L
1-1-3
Goals
4-12
Clean sheets
1
Failed to score
1
Best win run
1
Penalties
0/1
When they score
15'30'45'60'75'90'
When they concede
15'30'45'60'75'90'

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1
W-D-L
2-0-1
Goals
6-2
Clean sheets
1
Failed to score
1
Best win run
0
Penalties
1/1
When they score
15'30'45'60'75'90'
When they concede
15'30'45'60'75'90'

Key players · Ararat-Armenia

  • No player in the competition's top scorers or assisters.

Key players · AZ Alkmaar

  • Weslley Patati 2 G · 1 A · 3 apps

Top scorers · UEFA Europa League

  1. 1 L. Diony Omonia Nicosia 4
  2. 2 A. Cissè AC Milan 3
  3. 3 Yeremy Pino Crystal Palace 3
  4. 4 Sergio Gómez Real Sociedad 3
  5. 5 K. Zachariassen Ferencvarosi TC 3
Venue Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan
Referee Patrik Kolaric
New at Ararat-Armenia Benny (Petro de Luanda), A. Martirosyan (Ararat), Joao Bravim (Santa Clara)
New at AZ Alkmaar W. Hoedt (Al Shabab), V. Byskov (FC Midtjylland), S. Resink (Groningen)
— Aggregated insights

What’s moving the panel.

01
Consensus favors AZ Alkmaar

100% of models lean away — the clearest cluster on this fixture before kickoff.

02
Medium confidence

Mean 54% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.

03
xG tilt 0.70 vs 1.90

Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live match data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.

04
Match context

Expected-goals tilt and home-field rhythm (see xG on this page) usually explain whether the game stays open or compresses late.

Ask the Council about this match

Pro

10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.

Result check

Actual AZ Alkmaar win · AI AZ Alkmaar win

1X2: Miss Score: Off
— Match context

Form, history, team news.

Ararat-Armenia
#36 · 0 PTS · GD -9
Last 5
W W L W L
8 GF · 9 GA
Recent fixtures
  • Olympia Yerevan 1-4 W
  • FC Noah 2-1 W
  • AZ Alkmaar 0-4 L
  • BKMA 0-1 W
  • Jagiellonia 3-1 L
Team news
P. Ayongo — Off the roster Z. Banjaqui — Injury
AZ Alkmaar
#10 · 6 PTS · GD +4
Last 5
L L W D W
8 GF · 6 GA
Recent fixtures
  • Ajax 1-0 L
  • Twente 0-2 L
  • Ararat-Armenia 0-4 W
  • Cambuur 2-2 D
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva 2-1 W
Team news
J. Hornkamp — Injury S. Resink — Knee Injury K. Smit — Injury H. Verhulst — Off the roster J. Clasie — Knock
— Head to head

Last five meetings.

ARA 0 · D 0 · AZA 1

ARA VS AZA
0-4
AWAY WIN
Oct 22, 2026

Confidence trend

Cumulative average confidence in table order.

First model Last model

Betting tips (AI-signal view)

Educational only — not financial advice. We summarize how the AI picks cluster so you can cross-check with your own staking plan.

  • Lean with the plurality: when 0% of models side with Ararat-Armenia, treat that as the default script unless late team news breaks the assumptions.
  • Watch the draw lane at 0% — tight UEFA Europa League games often compress toward stalemates when both midfields win the second-ball.
  • If you chase “best bets today” narratives, require alignment between the headline pick and the score-frequency table; conflicting signals usually mean thinner edge.

Odds & analysis (implied probabilities)

Implied fair percentages from the model vote share (normalized to 100%) approximate how a balanced market might price the 1X2 if it mirrored this panel — useful for odds analysis homework even though we do not quote sportsbook ticks here.

Ararat-Armenia
~0%
implied lean
Draw
~0%
implied lean
AZ Alkmaar
~100%
implied lean

Over / under prediction (totals)

Model-derived xG sums to 2.60 goals in expectation. A notional totals line near 2.9 is consistent with that pace (rounded for readability). If your sportsbook posts a similar number, compare juice and live team news before deciding either side of the total.

Handicap prediction (spread-style read)

When Ararat-Armenia is priced as the stronger side in the model vote, a −1 handicap narrative only clears if the most common scorelines include multi-goal wins. Cross-check the score-frequency list: if tight one-goal wins dominate, Asian handicaps near pick’em or −0.5 / −0.75 splits often fit the story better than a full −1.5 sell.

BTTS prediction (both teams to score)

With combined offensive weight near 2.60 xG, a heuristic “both teams score” prior lands around 55% yes before defensive adjustments. If several top models forecast clean-sheet pathways, downgrade BTTS enthusiasm even when the raw xG sum looks juicy.

Best bet framing (consensus-led)

Our headline best bet label follows the consensus recommendation: AZ Alkmaar win. Pair that with the confidence band (Medium) — high dispersion across models usually argues for smaller stake or pass, even when the headline pick looks tempting for a today prediction card on social.

Match overview

Looking for a today prediction on Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar in UEFA Europa League? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (1 - 2; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before kickoff.

This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is AZ Alkmaar win, with vote shares roughly 0% / 0% / 100% home, draw, and away (rounded).

If you are asking who will win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.

Explore more

Keep browsing today prediction coverage and league hubs.

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— Journal

Articles linked to these clubs or AI forecasting.

Ask multiple AIs about this match.

10 models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and our model picks attached — not from memory. Then ask follow-ups to the same council.