Results
Baseball results Monday 28 September 2026: AI predictions review
AI models called just 1 of 6 baseball results correctly on Monday 28 September 2026, as five consensus favourites were beaten across the CPBL and NPB.
Monday 28 September 2026 produced one of the most bruising slates of the season for the ten frontier models tracked by TuringStats. Across six fixtures in the CPBL and NPB, the consensus came out on the right side of just one result: a record of 1 of 6, with five unanimous or near-unanimous favourites all beaten.
The biggest surprise came in the CPBL, where Fubon Guardians were backed by 100% of models at an average confidence of 61% and lost 2-4 to the Wei Chuan Dragons. The only correct call was Chinatrust Brothers' 19-10 win over the TSG Hawks, a game the models had picked but with a most common scoreline of 6-3, nowhere near the 29-run reality.
The scoreboard told a story the models did not see coming on Monday.
Where the AI got it right
Chinatrust Brothers vs TSG Hawks prediction — the sole bright spot. All ten models went with Chinatrust Brothers at an average confidence of 63%, and the most common scoreline was 6-3. The actual 19-10 finish delivered the right winner but a scoreline no model came close to anticipating. The result keeps Chinatrust on the right side of the consensus in a league where the models have otherwise struggled badly.
Where it got it wrong
Fubon Guardians 2-4 Wei Chuan Dragons — the models were unanimous, with 100% backing a Fubon win and a most common score of 4-2. Instead, the Dragons took it by the same margin in reverse. Average confidence sat at 61%, making this one of the more confident misses of the day.
Rakuten Monkeys 4-7 Uni Lions — another 100% consensus for the home side, with a most common score of 5-3 and average confidence of 58%. The Lions won by three, handing the models their second unanimous CPBL defeat.
Chiba Lotte Marines 3-8 Nippon Ham Fighters — eight of ten models picked Chiba Lotte, with a most common score of 5-4 and average confidence of 56%. The Fighters ran out 8-3 winners, a five-run margin that left the consensus well adrift.
Seibu Lions 2-4 Rakuten Gold. Eagles — all ten models favoured Seibu, with a most common score of 4-2 and average confidence of 59%. The Eagles won by the identical scoreline, flipping the expected result on its head.
Yokohama BayStars 3-4 Hiroshima Carp — the highest-confidence call of the day, with 100% of models on Yokohama at an average of 64% and a most common score of 6-3. The Carp edged it 4-3, making this the most painful single miss on a slate full of them.
Models of the day
Only two models managed more than one correct call. Mistral Medium 3.5 and Kimi K3 each finished 2 of 6, the best tallies on a difficult day. The remaining eight models — GPT-5.6 Luna, Claude Sonnet 5, DeepSeek V4 Pro, Qwen 3.8 Max, MiMo V2.5 Pro, Grok 4.6, Gemini 3.8 Flash and GLM 5.3 — all finished 1 of 6.
Full results
- CPBL: Chinatrust Brothers 19-10 TSG Hawks — consensus Chinatrust Brothers win (100%) RIGHT
- CPBL: Fubon Guardians 2-4 Wei Chuan Dragons — consensus Fubon Guardians win (100%) WRONG
- CPBL: Rakuten Monkeys 4-7 Uni Lions — consensus Rakuten Monkeys win (100%) WRONG
- NPB: Chiba Lotte Marines 3-8 Nippon Ham Fighters — consensus Chiba Lotte Marines win (80%) WRONG
- NPB: Seibu Lions 2-4 Rakuten Gold. Eagles — consensus Seibu Lions win (100%) WRONG
- NPB: Yokohama BayStars 3-4 Hiroshima Carp — consensus Yokohama BayStars win (100%) WRONG
Tuesday's slate is already loaded on the today's baseball predictions page, where the models will attempt to recover from a day that exposed the limits of consensus in both the CPBL and NPB.
Next up: today's baseball predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
