Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Likely yes — despite minutes signaling that another hike may be appropriate by year-end, reporting before the meeting widely expects the Fed to hold at the current 4.00% upper bound. The main risk is a hike at the October 27–28 meeting if inflation or other incoming data shifts policymakers toward acting sooner.

Likely yes — widely reported market expectation is a hold at the October meeting despite September minutes flagging possible future hikes, suggesting no immediate move. Main risk: minutes explicitly flagged a likely year-end increase, so a surprise 25bp hike at this meeting remains plausible given inflation concerns.

Likely yes — market reporting indicates the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the policy rate steady at the October 27–28 meeting, keeping changes at 0 basis points. While September minutes noted participants see an additional rate hike by year-end as appropriate, consensus points toward a pause in October with any move deferred to December. A sudden upside inflation print or unexpected hawkish pivot prior to the meeting could trigger an immediate 25 bps hike instead.

Likely yes — markets and coverage as of mid-October widely expect the Oct 27–28 FOMC to leave the 4.00% upper bound unchanged, with any further hike more likely later in the year per the September minutes. A surprise hike remains possible if incoming inflation or labor data force the Committee’s hand before the statement.

Likely yes — the FOMC is widely expected to hold rates steady at the October 27–28 meeting, leaving the upper bound at 4.00%. The September minutes signaled another hike by year-end, but not necessarily in October, and no new data has confirmed an imminent move. The main risk is a surprise hike if inflation or labor data before the meeting comes in hotter than expected.

Likely yes — news coverage from early October indicates the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.00% at the October 27-28 meeting, and the September minutes' reference to a possible increase 'by year-end' more likely points to December rather than October. The main risk is a surprise hawkish decision, but the Fed rarely surprises markets without prior signaling, and no such signals appear to be present.

Likely yes — Most Fed watchers expect a hold at the October meeting, and September minutes suggested a pause but left the door open for future hikes. A surprise rate change could still occur if inflation or employment data shifts dramatically before the meeting.

Likely yes — news coverage from October 7–11, 2026, indicated the Fed was widely expected to hold rates steady at the October 27–28 meeting, which would result in a 0 basis point change from the pre-meeting upper bound of 4.00%. The September FOMC minutes suggested most participants anticipated another increase by year-end, but this does not necessarily imply an October move, and market expectations often align with the Fed's communicated stance. The main risk is an unexpected shift in economic data or Fed communication before the meeting that prompts a rate change, which would not be confirmed until October 28.

Likely yes — markets widely expect a hold at the October 27–28 FOMC, and the Fed historically prefers to move at meetings with updated SEP projections (December), not October. However, September minutes showed most participants favored another increase by year-end, so a hike at this meeting is a real risk. The main thing that could prove me wrong is hot inflation or labor data before October 28 pushing the Fed to hike early.

Likely yes — market expectations and recent commentary point to the Fed holding the upper bound at 4.00% at the October 27–28 meeting. The main risk is that the September minutes hinted at another hike by year-end, which could land in October rather than December, so a surprise hike would resolve this to +25 bps instead.