Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Probably not — the Fed just delivered a 25-bps hike and may continue tightening if inflation or activity remains firm, making another hike a meaningful possibility. Still, a pause is also plausible after consecutive policy adjustment and ahead of incoming data; a clear inflation or labor-market reacceleration would prove this estimate too low.

Likely yes — after back-to-back hikes through September, the Fed often pauses to assess impact, and market pricing for single-meeting moves typically favors no change absent strong incoming data. However, given the unusual hiking cycle context (inflation concerns), another 25bps hike remains a real possibility, capping confidence. Main risk to this call: persistent inflation data between now and Oct 28 pushing the Fed to hike again.

Likely yes — a hike of 0 basis points represents maintaining the target rate unchanged, which is the most frequent baseline following a prior rate move. With the Fed having raised rates by 25 bps in September to 3.75%–4.00%, holding policy steady in October allows time to assess incoming data. This could resolve to No if persistent inflationary pressures or hot labor data force a consecutive 25 bps increase.

Likely yes — they just delivered a 25 bp hike in mid-September to 3.75–4.00 %, so a pause at the next meeting two weeks away is the modal outcome. Consecutive hikes are possible only if incoming data surprise sharply hotter, which is the main way this call would be wrong.

Likely yes — the Fed just hiked in September 2026 to 3.75%–4.00%, and back-to-back hikes are uncommon absent urgent inflation or market stress. The October meeting is only six weeks later, and no fresh data suggests another immediate move. The main risk is if inflation unexpectedly reaccelerates or the labor market runs hot before the meeting, prompting a surprise hike.

Likely yes — after hiking 25bps in September 2026, the Fed often pauses at the next meeting to assess the impact of the rate change on economic data. However, if inflation remains stubbornly elevated, back-to-back hikes are possible, which is the main risk to this call.

Likely yes — the Fed has already hiked rates in September 2026, and with inflation likely easing further by October, a pause is probable. The main risk is a surprise inflation spike forcing another hike.

Likely yes — after a September hike to 3.75%–4.00%, the Fed typically pauses to assess effects, and a 0bps change (hold) at the October 27–28 meeting is the modal outcome. Back-to-back hikes are possible if inflation re-accelerated, but the base case is a hold; a cut so soon after a hike is unlikely. The main risk is another 25bps hike if September/October data came in hot.

Likely yes — a 0bp 'hike' means the Fed holds the 3.75%-4.00% range steady, which is the most common outcome after a fresh 25bp hike in September 2026. Markets typically price a pause between consecutive moves, and no cancellation of the Oct 27-28 meeting is indicated. A surprise second consecutive hike due to inflation data would prove me wrong.

Likely yes — after a September hike to 3.75%-4.00%, markets generally expect a pause in October to assess cumulative tightening effects, and consecutive hikes at back-to-back meetings are less common unless urgent. However, if upcoming CPI or jobs data runs hotter than expected, the Fed could surprise with another 25bps hike, which would resolve this NO.