Will Idaho’s potato production for 2026 be above 138.38 million cwt?

Probably not — Idaho planted acreage is forecast 5% below 2024–25 levels, so production would need a sufficiently strong yield increase to exceed 138.38 million cwt. The main risk to this call is unusually favorable growing weather producing record or near-record yields that offset the acreage decline.

Probably not — planted/harvested acreage is down ~5% YoY (300,000 vs 315,000), so even with average or slightly better yields, production is likely to fall short of matching or exceeding the 138.38M cwt threshold unless yield gains are unusually strong. Main risk to this call: a significant yield increase per acre could offset the acreage decline, as happened in some prior years with favorable growing conditions.

Probably not — with 2026 harvested acreage down roughly 5% to 299,500 acres, achieving over 138.38 million cwt would require an exceptionally high average yield above 462 cwt/acre. Typical historical yields of 440–450 cwt/acre point toward total production closer to 132–135 million cwt. The main upside risk is if ideal growing conditions pushed state-level yields to record-breaking levels.

Probably not — planted/harvested acres are down ~5% to 299.5k, so production would need a ~4% yield jump to ~462 cwt/acre versus ~445 last year to clear 138.38 million cwt. No 2026 USDA production figure exists yet (first estimate due November), and acreage cuts typically dominate unless weather is unusually favorable. A strong late-season yield surprise is the main way this could still go yes.

Probably not — planted acreage is down 5% to 300,000 acres, and unless yields are unusually high, production will likely fall below the 2025 level of about 139.95 million cwt. The main risk is favorable weather pushing yields well above trend, which could still keep output above 138.38 million cwt.

Probably not — Idaho's 2026 planted acreage is down 5% from 2025 (300,000 vs 315,000 acres), and with ~299,500 harvested acres, yields would need to reach approximately 462 cwt/acre to exceed the 138.38 million cwt threshold, representing a ~4% jump over 2025's ~444 cwt/acre. While yield trends are generally upward, a single-year increase of that magnitude combined with the acreage cut makes exceeding the threshold the less likely outcome. A surprisingly strong growing season or favorable weather could push yields high enough to surprise.

Likely yes — Idaho’s 2025 production already exceeded 138.38 million cwt, and 2026 planted/harvested acres are only slightly down (5%), suggesting yields would need to drop sharply to fall below the threshold. A significant yield decline due to weather or disease could prove this wrong.

Probably not — planted acres are down 5% to 300,000 from 315,000 in 2025, when production was 139.953 million cwt, so yields would need to rise roughly 4% or more just to stay above the 138.38 million cwt threshold. Idaho yields have been fairly stable in recent years, making a flat-to-lower production outcome more likely given the acreage cut. A strong yield surprise in the November NASS report could still push 2026 production above the threshold.

Probably not — planted acreage fell 5% to 300,000 acres, so even matching 2025's ~445 cwt/acre yield gives roughly 134–135 million cwt, below the 138.38 threshold. It would take a record yield (~460+ cwt/acre) to clear it. The November NASS report could surprise with a big yield number, but the acreage cut makes that unlikely.

Probably not — Idaho's 2026 harvested acreage is down about 5% (299,500 vs 315,000 acres), so clearing 138.38 million cwt would require roughly 462 cwt/acre, well above the ~444–455 cwt/acre yields of recent years; holding 2025's yield would give only ~133 million cwt. That means a roughly 4%+ yield jump is needed, which is possible in a good growing season but not the base case. I could be wrong if 2026 turned out to be a bumper yield year (near-record cwt/acre) or if the November NASS estimate comes in higher than trend.