VEL 1-0 SAN · 54% LLA 0-1 JUN · 50% CFP 1-1 TIG · 45% EST 0-1 INS · 48% MON 1-1 CLU · 43% GUA 2-0 ATL · 58% COL 1-2 CHI · 49% CLU 2-1 TOL · 54% YOK 1-2 KAW · 47% JEF 1-1 AVI · 42% V-V 1-0 TOK · 44% MAC 2-0 GAM · 62% AME 3-0 EYü · 71% PEC 1-1 ADO · 40% VEL 1-0 SAN · 54% LLA 0-1 JUN · 50% CFP 1-1 TIG · 45% EST 0-1 INS · 48% MON 1-1 CLU · 43% GUA 2-0 ATL · 58% COL 1-2 CHI · 49% CLU 2-1 TOL · 54% YOK 1-2 KAW · 47% JEF 1-1 AVI · 42% V-V 1-0 TOK · 44% MAC 2-0 GAM · 62% AME 3-0 EYü · 71% PEC 1-1 ADO · 40%
Liga MX · Apertura - 15 Estadio BBVA, Monterrey Match Finished · 90'

Monterrey
vs
Guadalajara Chivas.

Quick answer

Who will win Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas?

Final score: Monterrey 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas. Before kickoff, 4 of 10 AI models pick Monterrey to win (40%); the consensus was wrong. The AI predicted score was 1–1.

Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before kickoff. Not betting advice.

Head-to-head history → Monterrey form Guadalajara Chivas form

10 AI models read this match. The plurality on 1X2 leans toward the draw (6 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 1–1 at 47% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.

Who do you think will win?

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Liga MX table Where Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas stand right now
— Consensus

Where the panel lands.

Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.

Monterrey win 40%

4 / 10 models

Draw 60%

6 / 10 models

Guadalajara Chivas win 0%

0 / 10 models

— Model breakdown

10 picks. Receipts attached.

Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.

#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-6 Luna
Draw
1–1
31%
Monterrey’s home advantage and recent WLDWW balance Chivas’ stronger defensive record and 6W-5D-2L campaign. Recent meetings favor Chivas, but the contrasting form and solid scoring from both sides point to a tight draw.
02
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Monterrey win
2–1
48%
Monterrey's stronger attack (Ocampos, Rossi) and home venue edge it, but Chivas' solid defense and recent H2H volatility keep this close.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Monterrey win
2–1
52%
Monterrey are strong at Estadio BBVA with Ocampos and Rossi in form, but Chivas' solid defense keeps it tight.
04
Grok 4.7
Draw
1–1
38%
Chivas are tighter (20-12, five clean sheets) and recent H2H favors them, while Monterrey’s home attack is lively but leaky; a low shared-goal stalemate fits both sides’ mixed last five.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Draw
1–1
48%
Monterrey's strong home form meets Chivas' solid defense and five clean sheets; recent H2H favors goals but Chivas' last five show draws, suggesting a tight, balanced contest.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
Draw
1–1
42%
Chivas' strong defense (12 conceded, 5 clean sheets) and draw-heavy form (5 draws in 12) offset Monterrey's home advantage; H2H includes a 1-1 at this venue.
07
Mistral Medium 3.5
Draw
1–1
62%
Chivas' solid defense (5 clean sheets) and Monterrey's inconsistent finishing (23-17 goals) suggest a tight, low-scoring draw. Recent H2H includes 1-1.
08
Kimi K3
Draw
1–1
48%
Chivas arrive unbeaten in five with the league's tighter defense, while Monterrey's home attack is strong but leaky; recent H2H goals both ways suggest a tight, level game.
09
GLM 5.3
Monterrey win
2–1
52%
Monterrey's WLDWW form and Estadio BBVA edge outweigh Chivas' 5 clean sheets; recent H2H games were open and high-scoring, so 2-1 fits both attacks.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
Monterrey win
2–1
48%
Monterrey's WLDWW form and Ocampos/Rossi scoring edge at Estadio BBVA outweigh Chivas' DLDDW dip, though Chivas' 5 clean sheets and recent H2H wins keep this tight.
— Scoreline frequency

How often each scoreline showed up.

6 of 10 models settled on 1–1. That convergence is a strong scoreline signal—many fixtures fan out wider across the panel.

  • 1–1
    6 models
  • 2–1
    4 models

Live match centre

Full-time
Monterrey
Diego Rossi 90+7'
0–1
Guadalajara Chivas
Roberto Alvarado 9'
Pro

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Bookmakers vs the AI panel

Bet365 · 2.30 / 3.40 / 3.00
Monterrey Market 41% · AI 40%
Draw Market 28% · AI 60%
Guadalajara Chivas Market 31% · AI 0%

Grey: bookmaker prices as probabilities, margin removed. Lime: share of the 10 AI models picking each result.

Team news

Confirmed lineups: Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas

Monterrey

4-4-2
M. Almeyda
99 H. Cuypers
99 Cuypers
9 D. Rossi
9 Rossi
17 J. Corona
17 Corona
25 O. Pineda
25 Pineda
18 Cesar Garza Cantu
18 Cantu
7 L. Ocampos
7 Ocampos
3 G. Arteaga
3 Arteaga
5 F. Ambríz
5 Ambríz
4 V. Guzmán
4 Guzmán
2 R. Chávez
2 Chávez
1 E. Andrada
1 Andrada

Bench: Óliver Torres, C. Salcedo, Paxon Levi Ruffin Tamez, J. Rodríguez, L. Orellano, S. Medina, L. Cárdenas, É. Aguirre, A. Aceves, R. de la Rosa

Guadalajara Chivas

3-4-2-1
G. Milito
17 R. Marín
17 Marín
30 Santiago Sandoval
30 Sandoval
25 R. Alvarado
25 Alvarado
5 B. González
5 González
6 O. Govea
6 Govea
28 R. González
28 González
37 R. Ledezma
37 Ledezma
3 D. Campillo
3 Campillo
16 L. Rey
16 Rey
23 D. Aguirre
23 Aguirre
1 J. Rangel
1 Rangel

Bench: J. Carrillo, H. Camberos, L. Calderon, K. Castañeda, Á. Chávez, J. Hernández, C. Hernandez, C. Inda, Óscar Whalley, E. Álvarez

Season data

Liga MX numbers for both sides, when they score and the players who carry them.

Monterrey

4-2-3-1
W-D-L
6-2-5
Goals
23-18
Clean sheets
3
Failed to score
3
Best win run
2
Penalties
2/4
When they score
15'30'45'60'75'90'
When they concede
15'30'45'60'75'90'

Guadalajara Chivas

3-4-2-1
W-D-L
7-5-2
Goals
21-12
Clean sheets
6
Failed to score
2
Best win run
2
Penalties
2/3
When they score
15'30'45'60'75'90'
When they concede
15'30'45'60'75'90'

Key players · Monterrey

  • L. Ocampos 6 G · 3 A · 11 apps
  • D. Rossi 5 G · 3 A · 12 apps
  • Óliver Torres 0 G · 4 A · 13 apps

Key players · Guadalajara Chivas

  • No player in the competition's top scorers or assisters.

Top scorers · Liga MX

  1. 1 S. Rondón CF Pachuca 13
  2. 2 J. Brunetta Tigres UANL 8
  3. 3 Juninho U.N.A.M. - Pumas 8
  4. 4 H. Martín Club America 8
  5. 5 F. Viñas Toluca 7
Venue Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Referee Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez
New at Monterrey A. De Nigris (Monterrey U21), S. Lomelin (Monterrey), H. Cuypers (Chicago Fire)
New at Guadalajara Chivas A. Mozo (CF Pachuca), F. Barajas (Atletico San Luis), K. Castañeda (Club Tijuana)
— Aggregated insights

What’s moving the panel.

01
Models lean the draw

60% of models take a stalemate — cross-check score frequency and 1X2 strip before sizing.

02
Medium confidence

Mean 47% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.

03
xG tilt 1.40 vs 1.00

Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live match data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.

04
Match context

Expected-goals tilt and home-field rhythm (see xG on this page) usually explain whether the game stays open or compresses late.

Ask the Council about this match

Pro

10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.

Result check

Actual Guadalajara Chivas win · AI Monterrey win

1X2: Miss Score: Off
— Match context

Form, history, team news.

Monterrey
#8 · 20 PTS · GD +5
Last 5
L W W D L
9 GF · 8 GA
Recent fixtures
  • Guadalajara Chivas 0-1 L
  • Puebla 1-4 W
  • CF Pachuca 2-1 W
  • Club America 1-1 D
  • Atlante FC 4-2 L
Team news

No major injury updates in the current API snapshot.

Guadalajara Chivas
#3 · 26 PTS · GD +9
Last 5
W W D D L
4 GF · 4 GA
Recent fixtures
  • Monterrey 0-1 W
  • Necaxa 1-0 W
  • Tigres UANL 1-1 D
  • Atlas 1-1 D
  • Club Queretaro 0-2 L
Team news

No major injury updates in the current API snapshot.

— Head to head

Last five meetings.

MON 1 · D 1 · GUA 3

MON VS GUA
2-3
AWAY WIN
Mar 22, 2026
GUA VS MON
4-2
HOME WIN
Nov 8, 2025
MON VS GUA
3-1
HOME WIN
Apr 6, 2025
GUA VS MON
1-1
DRAW
Sep 29, 2024
MON VS GUA
0-2
AWAY WIN
Mar 31, 2024

Confidence trend

Cumulative average confidence in table order.

First model Last model

Betting tips (AI-signal view)

Educational only — not financial advice. We summarize how the AI picks cluster so you can cross-check with your own staking plan.

  • Lean with the plurality: when 40% of models side with Monterrey, treat that as the default script unless late team news breaks the assumptions.
  • Watch the draw lane at 60% — tight Liga MX games often compress toward stalemates when both midfields win the second-ball.
  • If you chase “best bets today” narratives, require alignment between the headline pick and the score-frequency table; conflicting signals usually mean thinner edge.

Odds & analysis (implied probabilities)

Implied fair percentages from the model vote share (normalized to 100%) approximate how a balanced market might price the 1X2 if it mirrored this panel — useful for odds analysis homework even though we do not quote sportsbook ticks here.

Monterrey
~40%
implied lean
Draw
~60%
implied lean
Guadalajara Chivas
~0%
implied lean

Over / under prediction (totals)

Model-derived xG sums to 2.40 goals in expectation. A notional totals line near 2.7 is consistent with that pace (rounded for readability). If your sportsbook posts a similar number, compare juice and live team news before deciding either side of the total.

Handicap prediction (spread-style read)

When Monterrey is priced as the stronger side in the model vote, a −1 handicap narrative only clears if the most common scorelines include multi-goal wins. Cross-check the score-frequency list: if tight one-goal wins dominate, Asian handicaps near pick’em or −0.5 / −0.75 splits often fit the story better than a full −1.5 sell.

BTTS prediction (both teams to score)

With combined offensive weight near 2.40 xG, a heuristic “both teams score” prior lands around 55% yes before defensive adjustments. If several top models forecast clean-sheet pathways, downgrade BTTS enthusiasm even when the raw xG sum looks juicy.

Best bet framing (consensus-led)

Our headline best bet label follows the consensus recommendation: Monterrey win. Pair that with the confidence band (Medium) — high dispersion across models usually argues for smaller stake or pass, even when the headline pick looks tempting for a today prediction card on social.

Match overview

Looking for a today prediction on Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas in Liga MX? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (1 - 1; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before kickoff.

This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is Monterrey win, with vote shares roughly 40% / 60% / 0% home, draw, and away (rounded).

If you are asking who will win Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.

Explore more

Keep browsing today prediction coverage and league hubs.

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— Journal

Articles linked to these clubs or AI forecasting.

Ask multiple AIs about this match.

10 models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and our model picks attached — not from memory. Then ask follow-ups to the same council.