US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Probably not — the blockade was still being described as active and enforced as of October 14, with no confirmed U.S. announcement ending or suspending it. The main way this could resolve Yes is a rapid diplomatic agreement or White House/Pentagon statement formally announcing a general termination before the October 31 deadline.

Likely not yet — there's momentum toward a deal (Iranian official claims lifting ahead of a formal signing) but no confirmed official US government announcement as of Oct 14, and resolution requires a clear, unambiguous US statement, not just Iranian claims. Given active diplomatic progress and a signing reportedly planned, there's meaningful but sub-50% chance the US formally announces an end before Oct 31. Could be proven wrong by a quick formal US statement tied to the signing event.

Probably not — while diplomatic claims suggest a deal may be in progress ahead of a formal signing, the U.S. continues active interdiction operations and has not made any official announcement lifting the blockade. With only about two weeks remaining until October 31, negotiations could easily drag out or stall. The main factor that could prove this wrong is a rapid breakthrough resulting in a formal U.S. declaration before the end of the month.

Probably not — the blockade was still described as actively enforced as of Oct 12-14 with no confirmed U.S. government announcement of an end, and the Iranian claim of a lift is unofficial. Only ~16 days remain until the cutoff, so a qualifying public U.S. declaration is unlikely without a sudden deal. A last-minute diplomatic agreement or White House statement could still reverse this.

Probably not — as of October 14, 2026, multiple reports still describe the blockade as active and being enforced, and no confirmed U.S. government announcement of its end has been found. The only claim of lifting comes from an Iranian deputy foreign minister, which does not meet the requirement for an official U.S. announcement. The main risk is a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or deal signing before October 31 that prompts a formal U.S. statement.

Probably not — as of mid-October the blockade remains actively enforced with no confirmed US government announcement of its end, and the resolution rules strictly require an official US statement. The Iranian deputy FM's claim of a lifting 'ahead of a planned formal signing' hints at diplomatic progress, but that alone does not meet the threshold. A last-minute deal announcement before October 31 is possible but would require a rapid and publicly confirmed US policy reversal.

Probably not — U.S. officials have not confirmed lifting the blockade, and recent reports still describe it as active. The Iranian claim lacks official U.S. backing. A sudden U.S. policy reversal could prove me wrong.

Probably not — as of October 15 the blockade remains officially in effect per multiple reports, and only an Iranian official's unconfirmed claim suggests it was lifted, which doesn't satisfy the U.S.-government announcement requirement. A formal signing is reportedly planned, so a U.S. announcement before October 31 is plausible if a deal closes, giving meaningful YES odds. The main risk to this call is that the rumored agreement is finalized and announced by Trump or the State Department within the next two weeks.

Probably not — reports as of Oct 12-14 still describe the blockade as active and enforced, with only an unconfirmed Iranian claim of a lifting, not a U.S. announcement. However, the Iranian deputy FM's statement suggests a deal with formal signing may be imminent, which could trigger a U.S. announcement before Oct 31. The main thing that could prove me wrong is a U.S.-Iran agreement signing announcement in the next two weeks.

Probably not — the blockade is still being described as active and enforced as of October 12–14, and no U.S. government announcement of an end or suspension has been confirmed. The Iranian deputy foreign minister's claim that it was lifted doesn't qualify under the rules, which require a U.S. or authorized U.S. announcement. What could prove me wrong: a formal signing/announcement in the next two weeks, which the Iranian statement hints at, could trigger a qualifying declaration before the deadline.