C. Flagg
Dallas Mavericks · F · last 3 games
NBA · Regular Season
American Airlines Center, Dallas
Finished
Dallas Mavericks
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder.
Quick answer
Who will win Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
Final score: Dallas Mavericks 120–96 Oklahoma City Thunder. Before kickoff, 10 of 10 AI models pick Oklahoma City Thunder to win (100%); the consensus was wrong. The AI predicted score was 108–109.
Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before tip-off. Not betting advice.
All 10 AIs agree. When the whole council agrees, it has been right 64% of the time (55 games).
10 AI models read this game. The plurality on the winner leans toward Oklahoma City Thunder (10 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 108–109 at 64% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.
Who do you think will win?
Vote before kick-off and compare with AI
— Consensus
Where the panel lands.
Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.
Dallas Mavericks win
0%
0 / 10 models
Oklahoma City Thunder win
100%
10 / 10 models
— Model breakdown
10 picks. Receipts attached.
Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.
Read: Oklahoma City Thunder win
#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-6 Luna
Oklahoma City Thunder win
110–111
66%
Oklahoma City’s 2-0 start, elite 94.9 defensive rating, lower turnover rate, and recent 4-0 run outweigh Dallas’s home advantage. Both teams have two days’ rest, while Kyrie’s uncertain availability further weakens Dallas’s offense.
02
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Oklahoma City Thunder win
109–117
70%
OKC enters unbeaten with elite net rating and SGA in strong form, while Dallas is 1-2 with poor defense (112.9 per 100) and recent losing streak.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Oklahoma City Thunder win
106–114
64%
OKC boasts an elite 94.9 defensive rating and recent head-to-head dominance. With Irving battling availability issues and Dallas turning the ball over frequently, Gilgeous-Alexander's steady offense secures an away win.
04
Grok 4.7
Oklahoma City Thunder win
108–116
62%
OKC is 2-0 with elite early defense (94.9 per 100) versus Dallas 1-2 and Irving missing last game; recent H2H also favors Thunder despite home venue.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Oklahoma City Thunder win
108–109
61%
Thunder's elite defense (94.9 per 100) and 4-game win streak outweigh Dallas' 1-2 start; OKC has won 3 of last 4 H2H meetings.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
Oklahoma City Thunder win
112–113
68%
OKC's elite defense (94.9 per 100) and undefeated start contrast sharply with Dallas's 1-2 record and poor defense; Irving's absence further weakens the Mavericks.
07
Mistral Medium 3.5
Oklahoma City Thunder win
108–109
62%
OKC's 2-0 start, elite defense (94.9 DRTG), and recent H2H edge outweigh Dallas' home court and Kyrie's absence.
08
Kimi K3
Oklahoma City Thunder win
108–114
62%
OKC's elite defense (94.9 rating) and perfect start outweigh Dallas's home court, especially with Kyrie Irving's status uncertain; Thunder have won three straight H2H meetings.
09
GLM 5.3
Oklahoma City Thunder win
105–106
63%
OKC's 2-0 start and league-best 94.9 defensive rating travel well; Dallas is 1-2 with Kyrie Irving possibly out, and the Thunder won three of the last four meetings.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
Oklahoma City Thunder win
106–112
64%
OKC's elite defense (94.9 per 100) and 2-0 form with SGA clicking outweigh Dallas' struggles; Kyrie's absence and 18.3% turnover rate hurt the Mavs despite home court and equal rest.
— Scoreline frequency
How often each scoreline showed up.
2 of 7 models settled on 108–109. The rest of the list shows where dissent still lives before tip-off.
-
108–109
2 models
-
110–111
1 model
-
109–117
1 model
-
112–113
1 model
-
106–112
1 model
-
108–116
1 model
Live game centre
FinalDallas Mavericks
120–96
Oklahoma City Thunder| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | 33 | 32 | 29 | 26 | 120 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 30 | 29 | 22 | 15 | 96 |
33
30
32
29
29
22
26
15
Pro
Live team stats, the box score and every lead change, minute by minute.
Unlock with Pro in the appStandings, rest and form
Where both teams stand, how rested they are, who carries the scoring and how their last ten games went.
AI spread
Thunder −1
AI total
217
Models picking
100%
From the mean predicted score of every model. Compare with your sportsbook's line.
Star matchup · last 3 games
CF
Dallas Mavericks · F
C. Flagg
Dallas Mavericks · F
25
PTS
24.8
5.3
REB
3.2
6.3
AST
4.2
30
MIN
32
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Oklahoma City Thunder · G
Dallas Mavericks
3-2 · #8 Western Home 1-1 · Away 2-1 · Last ten 3-2 · Streak W2
2 days of rest
· 3 games in 7 days
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 · #5 Western Home 3-0 · Away 1-1 · Last ten 4-1 · Streak L1
2 days of rest
· 3 games in 7 days
Did not play last game
Regulars missing from the latest box score: injury, rest or suspension. Check the status before tip-off.
-
Naji Marshall Mavericks · F28 min · 13.7 pts a game before -
Chet Holmgren Thunder · C30 min · 12 pts a game before -
Jalen Williams Thunder · G29 min · 14.3 pts a game before -
Cason Wallace Thunder · G22 min · 8 pts a game before
Season averages per game
Dallas Mavericks
Oklahoma City Thunder
114.3
Points
109
47.1%
Field goal %
45.3%
33.8%
3-point %
33.1%
78%
Free throw %
78.9%
43.5
Rebounds
45.4
27.5
Assists
24
18
Turnovers
16.4
9.2
Steals
7.8
6.8
Blocks
6.9
Ratings and four factors
Per 100 possessions. Pace is possessions per game; defence uses points allowed over the last ten.
| Mavericks | Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 110.3 | 104.2 |
| Defensive rating | 112 | 98.5 |
| Net rating | -1.6 | +5.7 |
| Pace | 103.6 | 104.6 |
| Effective FG % | 54.7 | 51.7 |
| Turnover % | 17.4 | 15.7 |
| Free throw rate | 25.7 | 23.4 |
| 3-point attempt rate | 44.8 | 38.8 |
Key players · Dallas Mavericks
-
CF
C. FlaggF 25 pts · 5.3 reb · 6.3 ast
-
Kyrie IrvingG 19 pts · 3.7 reb · 3.7 ast -
PW
P.J. WashingtonF 15.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1.5 ast
Averages over the last 3 games.
Key players · Oklahoma City Thunder
-
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG 24.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.2 ast
-
Ajay MitchellG 16 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast -
Jalen WilliamsG 14.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast
Averages over the last 5 games.
Last ten games
Dallas Mavericks
WLWL
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
- Points scored / allowed
- 112.5 / 116
- Total over 220.5
- 4/4
- Total over 230.5
- 1/4
- Scored 110+
- 3/4
- Won by 6+
- 1/4
Oklahoma City Thunder
WWWWW
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
- Points scored / allowed
- 111.8 / 103
- Total over 220.5
- 2/5
- Total over 230.5
- 1/5
- Scored 110+
- 3/5
- Won by 6+
- 4/5
Player photos via Wikimedia Commons: Kyrie Irving by Erik Drost (CC BY 2.0), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander by Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0), Ajay Mitchell by Daiei Onoguchi (CC BY 4.0), Jalen Williams by Daiei Onoguchi (CC BY 4.0), Naji Marshall by FOX Sports (CC BY 3.0), Chet Holmgren by Steve Cheng, Bruin Report Online (CC BY 2.0), Cason Wallace by Brady Saylor (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Player props
Prop hit rates: Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Each line sits at the player's recent average. Bars show every game, green when he went over.
Kyrie Irving
Dallas Mavericks · G · last 3 games
P.J. Washington
Dallas Mavericks · F · last 4 games
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 5 games
Ajay Mitchell
Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 4 games
Jalen Williams
Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 4 games
From box scores of each team's recent games. Lines are our reference points, not sportsbook prices.
Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder: quick answers
- What is the predicted total for Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
- The AI models' mean predicted score is Dallas Mavericks 108, Oklahoma City Thunder 109: a projected total of 217 points. Dallas Mavericks games went over 220.5 in 4 of the last 4; Oklahoma City Thunder games went over 220.5 in 2 of the last 5.
- What is the AI spread pick for Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
- The consensus has Oklahoma City Thunder winning by 1 points (109–108), from the mean of every model's predicted score.
- Who are the key players in Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
- Leading scorers over the last 3 games. Dallas Mavericks: C. Flagg (25 pts, 5.3 reb, 6.3 ast), Kyrie Irving (19 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.7 ast). Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (24.8 pts, 3.2 reb, 4.2 ast), Ajay Mitchell (16 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.8 ast).
- Is Dallas Mavericks or Oklahoma City Thunder on a back-to-back?
- Dallas Mavericks have had 2 days of rest; Oklahoma City Thunder have had 2 days of rest.
— Aggregated insights
What’s moving the panel.
01
Consensus favors Oklahoma City Thunder
100% of models lean away — the clearest cluster on this fixture before tip-off.
02
Medium confidence
Mean 64% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.
03
Expected points tilt 108.00 vs 112.10
Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live game data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.
04
Match context
Rest, recent form and home advantage usually decide whether the favourite wins comfortably or the game stays close; check both teams below.
Ask the Council about this match
Pro10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.
Confidence trend
Cumulative average confidence in table order.
First model
Last model
Match overview
Looking for a today prediction on Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (108 - 109; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before tip-off.
This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is Oklahoma City Thunder win, with vote shares roughly 0% / 100% home and away (rounded).
If you are asking who will win Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.
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Ask multiple AIs about this match.
10 models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and our model picks attached — not from memory. Then ask follow-ups to the same council.