Polymarket vs Kalshi
Updated 22 October 2026
Both are prediction markets where a price of 70¢ means the crowd sees a 70% chance. Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC; Polymarket is a crypto-based market with a global audience. On the same kind of questions our 10 AI models, blind to the price, picked the right side 10 of 15 times on Kalshi (market 10) and 19 of 26 on Polymarket (market 21).
At a glance
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| What it is | Crypto-based prediction market | US exchange regulated by the CFTC |
| Prices | 0–100¢ per share = implied chance | 0–100¢ per contract = implied chance |
| Popular topics | Politics, crypto, world events, sports | Economics, weather, politics, sports |
| Where it works | Depends on your country: check its terms | Depends on your country: check its terms |
| AI right side (10 models, blind) | 19 of 26 | 10 of 15 |
| Market favourite right | 21 of 26 | 10 of 15 |
Reading a price as a probability
A Yes price of 62¢ means traders put the chance at about 62%. That number is the crowd's view, and crowds are good forecasters: across 41 resolved questions in our sample the market favourite was right 75.6% of the time.
A second opinion from 10 AIs
Every day we take the most-traded questions on both platforms and ask 10 AI models to forecast them without showing the price. When the AIs land far from the market, that gap is worth a closer look; when they were confident (80%+ either way) they picked the right side 11 of 12 times. Live scoreboard: AI vs Polymarket and Kalshi.
Questions
Is Kalshi or Polymarket more accurate?
On our 41 resolved questions the favourite was right 10 of 15 times on Kalshi and 21 of 26 on Polymarket: both are strong. The sample is small and the questions differ, so treat it as a snapshot.
Does TuringStats offer trading?
No. TuringStats shows AI forecasts next to public market prices for information only. It has no trading, no accounts with these platforms and gives no financial advice.
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