Football results Thursday 15 October 2026: AI predictions review

Thursday 15 October 2026 delivered 27 matches across Major League Soccer and the UEFA Europa League, and the ten-model TuringStats consensus finished the day with 14 correct calls. That is a hit rate of just under 52 per cent, a modest return on a slate that mixed domestic league fixtures with a busy European card.

The standout surprise came at Real Salt Lake, where all ten models backed a home win and the match finished 1-1 against San Jose Earthquakes. The consensus had also been unanimous on Sparta Praha and Marseille, both of whom failed to win, while Chicago Fire's 1-3 home defeat by Philadelphia Union landed as the biggest miss of the MLS section given the 70 per cent draw lean.

The night's scoreboards told a mixed story for the models.

Where the AI got it right

Nashville SC were the strongest MLS call of the day. Nine of ten models backed a home win, and Nashville delivered a 4-0 rout of Sporting Kansas City. The consensus scoreline was 2-1 with average confidence at 43 per cent, so the margin exceeded expectations even if the result did not. Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City prediction

Los Angeles FC were a unanimous pick and justified the 100 per cent agreement with a 3-1 win over Austin. Average confidence was 48 per cent, the highest of the MLS fixtures, and the models were rewarded for their conviction. Los Angeles FC vs Austin prediction

In the Europa League, Lyon were backed by every model and edged Crystal Palace 3-2. The consensus score was 1-0, so the five-goal thriller ran well beyond the expected goal count, but the result side of the call held. Lyon vs Crystal Palace prediction

Benfica were another unanimous selection and beat Celtic 4-1. The models had called a 2-1 home win with 47 per cent average confidence, and while the scoreline was more emphatic, the direction was never in doubt. Benfica vs Celtic prediction

Bournemouth also delivered for a 100 per cent consensus, beating Sturm Graz 3-0. The pre-match call was 2-0 with 47 per cent confidence, and the Cherries matched the clean sheet expectation while adding a third goal. Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction

Where it got it wrong

The most costly miss was Real Salt Lake, where 100 per cent of models backed a home win. The match ended 1-1, and the consensus score of 2-1 with 45 per cent average confidence made the failure a clean sweep against the models.

Sparta Praha were also unanimous, with every model expecting a home win and a 2-0 scoreline. Lillestrom held them to 1-1, turning a 46 per cent confidence call into a wrong verdict.

Marseille attracted 100 per cent support for a 1-0 home win over Olympiakos Piraeus. Instead, the French side lost 0-1, a result that no model saw coming and one that underlined the limits of 45 per cent average confidence.

Chicago Fire were expected to draw with Philadelphia Union by 70 per cent of models, with a 1-1 scoreline the most common prediction. The Union won 3-1, a two-goal margin that made the draw lean look particularly fragile at 37 per cent average confidence.

Colorado Rapids were backed by 80 per cent of models to beat Minnesota United, with 2-1 the consensus score. The match finished 2-2, and the 41 per cent confidence attached to the home win proved insufficient.

San Diego were 80 per cent picks to beat Houston Dynamo, but a 3-3 draw denied them. The consensus had been 2-1 with 43 per cent confidence, and the six-goal draw was the highest-scoring miss of the day.

Models of the day

Three models shared top spot with 17 correct calls from 27: DeepSeek V4 Pro, Qwen 3.8 Max and Gemini 3.8 Flash. They finished two clear of the chasing pack and set the benchmark for the day.

Claude Sonnet 5 and Mistral Medium 3.5 followed with 16 correct, while Grok 4.6 and Kimi K3 managed 15. MiMo V2.5 Pro and GLM 5.3 were next on 14, and GPT-5.6 Luna propped up the table with 13 correct.

The spread from best to worst was four correct calls, a reminder that even at the frontier the models diverge meaningfully on a mixed slate.

Full results

• Major League Soccer: Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union — consensus draw (70%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps — consensus St. Louis City win (50%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: Nashville SC 4–0 Sporting Kansas City — consensus Nashville SC win (90%) RIGHT
• Major League Soccer: FC Dallas 1–0 Seattle Sounders — consensus draw (70%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: Colorado Rapids 2–2 Minnesota United FC — consensus Colorado Rapids win (80%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: Real Salt Lake 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes — consensus Real Salt Lake win (100%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: Los Angeles FC 3–1 Austin — consensus Los Angeles FC win (100%) RIGHT
• Major League Soccer: Los Angeles Galaxy 2–0 Portland Timbers — consensus Los Angeles Galaxy win (90%) RIGHT
• Major League Soccer: San Diego 3–3 Houston Dynamo — consensus San Diego win (80%) WRONG
• UEFA Europa League: Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad — consensus Real Sociedad win (40%) WRONG
• UEFA Europa League: Torreense 1–2 Sunderland — consensus Sunderland win (90%) RIGHT
• UEFA Europa League: Sparta Praha 1–1 Lillestrom — consensus Sparta Praha win (100%) WRONG
• UEFA Europa League: Red Bull Salzburg 0–4 AC Milan — consensus AC Milan win (80%) RIGHT
• UEFA Europa League: Lyon 3–2 Crystal Palace — consensus Lyon win (100%) RIGHT
• UEFA Europa League: Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen — consensus Bayer Leverkusen win (100%) RIGHT
• UEFA Europa League: Celje 0–3 Omonia Nicosia — consensus draw (60%) WRONG
• UEFA Europa League: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva — consensus AZ Alkmaar win (100%) RIGHT
• UEFA Europa League: Benfica 4–1 Celtic — consensus Benfica win (100%) RIGHT
• UEFA Europa League: Bournemouth 3–0 Sturm Graz — consensus Bournemouth win (100%) RIGHT
• UEFA Europa League: Celta Vigo 1–2 Juventus — consensus Juventus win (90%) RIGHT
• UEFA Europa League: Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 Anderlecht — consensus Dinamo Zagreb win (90%) RIGHT
• UEFA Europa League: Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Plzen — consensus draw (60%) WRONG
• UEFA Europa League: 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Beşiktaş — consensus 1899 Hoffenheim win (90%) WRONG
• UEFA Europa League: Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia — consensus Jagiellonia win (100%) RIGHT
• UEFA Europa League: Marseille 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus — consensus Marseille win (100%) WRONG
• UEFA Europa League: NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Levski Sofia — consensus NEC Nijmegen win (90%) WRONG
• UEFA Europa League: Rennes 2–1 OFI — consensus Rennes win (100%) RIGHT

Friday's slate is already loaded into the model suite. The full breakdown of today's predictions, including consensus picks and confidence levels, is available on the TuringStats today page.

Next up: today's football predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.