Football results Saturday 17 October 2026: AI predictions review

Saturday's slate ran to 28 matches across seven competitions and the ten-model consensus came away with 17 correct calls. That is a workable if unspectacular hit rate, and it flatters a day on which several of the highest-confidence picks fell apart in the most straightforward way possible.

The biggest surprise arrived in Serie A, where a unanimous Napoli consensus — 100% of 12 models, most common score 0-2, average confidence 54% — was overturned by Venezia, who won 1-0. Union Berlin's goalless draw with Borussia Dortmund, another unanimous call, and Villarreal's 0-0 with Elche run it close.

Full-time on a 28-match Saturday: the consensus finished 17 of 28.

Where the AI got it right

Bayern München were the day's most emphatic success. All 12 models backed them against RB Leipzig with an average confidence of 57% and a most common score of 3-1; the actual result was 6-1, so the winner was never in doubt even if the margin was underestimated. Bayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction

Real Betis against Barcelona drew a unanimous Barcelona consensus at 52% average confidence, with 1-2 the most common scoreline. Barcelona won 2-5, another case of the right winner and the wrong scoreline. Real Betis vs Barcelona prediction

Manchester City carried the highest confidence of the day at 73%, with all 12 models on them and 3-0 the most common score. City beat Ipswich 3-2 — the pick was right, the clean sheet was not. Manchester City vs Ipswich prediction

Valencia against Athletic Club was one of the few draws the models called correctly, with 50% of 12 models on the draw and 1-1 the most common score. It finished 0-0. Valencia vs Athletic Club prediction

In MLS, New York City FC against Los Angeles FC also landed on the draw, backed by 60% of 10 models at 39% average confidence, and finished 1-1. New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC prediction

Where it got it wrong

The Bundesliga was the scene of the damage: five of six matches went against the consensus. Elversberg beat Augsburg 4-3 despite 92% of models backing the away side at just 47% confidence. Union Berlin held Dortmund to 0-0 with all 12 models on a Dortmund win. Hamburger SV beat Stuttgart 1-0 against a 58% Stuttgart split. Werder Bremen were held 2-2 by Paderborn after 92% backed a home win. Schalke lost 0-1 to Mainz on a 50% split.

Villarreal's 0-0 with Elche was the costliest miss in La Liga: 100% of 12 models on a Villarreal win at 51% confidence. Lille were held 1-1 by Stade Brestois after 67% backed the home side. In MLS, Philadelphia Union drew 2-2 with Charlotte despite a unanimous 10-model call, and the New York Red Bulls lost 0-2 to Toronto FC against 90% backing. Newcastle's 0-1 defeat to Aston Villa went against a 67% home consensus, and Venezia's 1-0 win over Napoli was the day's cleanest upset.

Models of the day

GPT-5.6 Luna topped the table with 19 of 28 correct, one clear of Gemini 3.8 Flash on 18. GLM 5.3 finished on 16, with DeepSeek V4 Pro, Qwen 3.8 Max and Grok 4.6 all level on 15. Claude Sonnet 5 and Kimi K3 each managed 14.

At the bottom, Mistral Medium 3.5 and MiMo V2.5 Pro recorded 12 of 28, while Llama 3.1 70B Instruct and Cohere Command R+ (08-2024) each finished on 12 of 21 — the two models that did not cover the full card. Cohere's 9 of 21 was the weakest return of the day.

Full results

• Bundesliga: SV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg — consensus FC Augsburg win (92%) WRONG
• Bundesliga: Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia Dortmund — consensus Borussia Dortmund win (100%) WRONG
• Bundesliga: Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart — consensus VfB Stuttgart win (58%) WRONG
• Bundesliga: Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 — consensus Werder Bremen win (92%) WRONG
• Bundesliga: FC Schalke 04 0–1 FSV Mainz 05 — consensus FC Schalke 04 win (50%) WRONG
• Bundesliga: Bayern München 6–1 RB Leipzig — consensus Bayern München win (100%) RIGHT
• La Liga: Espanyol 0–1 Atletico Madrid — consensus Atletico Madrid win (92%) RIGHT
• La Liga: Villarreal 0–0 Elche — consensus Villarreal win (100%) WRONG
• La Liga: Real Betis 2–5 Barcelona — consensus Barcelona win (100%) RIGHT
• La Liga: Valencia 0–0 Athletic Club — consensus draw (50%) RIGHT
• Ligue 1: Strasbourg 1–3 Paris Saint Germain — consensus Paris Saint Germain win (100%) RIGHT
• Ligue 1: Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 29 — consensus Lille win (67%) WRONG
• Ligue 1: Estac Troyes 1–3 Lens — consensus Lens win (92%) RIGHT
• Major League Soccer: Philadelphia Union 2–2 Charlotte — consensus Philadelphia Union win (100%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis City — consensus Minnesota United FC win (80%) RIGHT
• Major League Soccer: New England Revolution 1–0 Chicago Fire — consensus New England Revolution win (90%) RIGHT
• Major League Soccer: Orlando City SC 4–1 DC United — consensus Orlando City SC win (100%) RIGHT
• Major League Soccer: New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FC — consensus New York Red Bulls win (90%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: New York City FC 1–1 Los Angeles FC — consensus draw (60%) RIGHT
• Major League Soccer: Atlanta United FC 1–3 Inter Miami — consensus Inter Miami win (50%) RIGHT
• Premier League: Everton 0–2 Chelsea — consensus Chelsea win (58%) RIGHT
• Premier League: Manchester City 3–2 Ipswich — consensus Manchester City win (100%) RIGHT
• Premier League: Fulham 1–0 Hull City — consensus Fulham win (100%) RIGHT
• Premier League: Brentford 1–2 Liverpool — consensus Liverpool win (92%) RIGHT
• Premier League: Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa — consensus Newcastle win (67%) WRONG
• Serie A: Venezia 1–0 Napoli — consensus Napoli win (100%) WRONG
• Serie A: Bologna 1–3 Inter — consensus Inter win (58%) RIGHT
• Serie A: AS Roma 2–0 Genoa — consensus AS Roma win (100%) RIGHT

The models return to action with a fresh card, and the full set of calls is published on the today's predictions page.

Next up: today's football predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.