GPT-5.6 Luna
72% yes
Likely yes — Binance BTC/USDT is currently around $81,600, giving a cushion above the $80,000 threshold for the specified noon ET close. The main risk is a sharp intraday decline before the resolution candle, especially given the recent 2–3% daily weakness.
Claude Sonnet 5
92% yes
Likely yes — current snapshots show BTC/USDT trading around $81,500-81,650, comfortably above the $80,000 threshold, with no signs of an imminent crash before noon ET. Main risk is a sharp intraday drop of over $1,500 before the 12:00 ET candle close given recent volatility.
Gemini 3.8 Flash
84% yes
Likely yes — live market data shows BTC/USDT trading comfortably around $81,500 to $81,650 on Binance on October 15, well above the $80,000 mark. With noon ET approaching or near, maintaining a buffer of roughly $1,500 (nearly 2%) favors a positive resolution. A sudden, sharp intraday flash crash before the 12:00 ET candle closes is the primary risk that could force resolution below $80,000.
Grok 4.6
82% yes
Likely yes — live Binance-linked snapshots on Oct 15 show BTC/USDT around $81.5k–$81.7k, already above the $80k threshold with only modest 2–3% 24h weakness. A further ~2% drop by the exact 12:00 ET (16:00 UTC) 1-minute close is possible given crypto volatility but not the base case. Main risk is a sharp late sell-off in the remaining hours before the candle prints.
DeepSeek V4 Pro
95% yes
Likely yes — Bitcoin is trading around $81,000–$81,650 on Oct. 15, 2026, well above the $80,000 threshold. The resolution is at 12:00 ET today, so only a sharp intraday drop below $80,000 would flip it to No. Main risk is a sudden selloff in the next few hours.
Qwen 3.8 Max
85% yes
Likely yes — Bitcoin is currently trading around $81,500-$81,600, roughly $1,500 above the $80,000 threshold, providing a reasonable buffer. Although the market is down 2-3% over the past 24 hours suggesting some bearish momentum, a further ~2% decline to breach $80,000 by noon ET would require continued selling pressure. The main risk is that the current downtrend accelerates enough to push price below $80,000 in the remaining hours.
Mistral Medium 3.5
85% yes
Likely yes — Bitcoin is currently trading around $81,500-$81,650 on Binance, well above $80,000, with no sudden crash indicated in live data. The main risk is a sharp intraday drop before 12:00 ET.
Kimi K3
92% yes
Likely yes — BTC/USDT is trading around $81,500–$81,650 on Binance-linked snapshots as of Oct. 15, roughly 1.9% above the $80,000 threshold with the noon ET candle close imminent. A drop of over $1,500 within the remaining minutes-to-hours window would be needed to flip this, and while the market is down 2–3% on the day, that magnitude of sudden move is uncommon absent a major catalyst. Main risk: a sharp liquidation cascade or breaking negative news before 12:00 ET pushes price below $80k.
GLM 5.3
88% yes
Likely yes — BTC is trading around $81,500–$81,650 on Binance this morning, roughly 2% above the $80,000 threshold with only a few hours to the noon ET resolution candle. A 2% intraday drop is possible but not typical absent a major catalyst, and the snapshots show only mild weakness. A sudden crash or heavy sell-off before 12:00 ET is the main risk that would flip this to No.
MiMo V2.5 Pro
95% yes
Likely yes — the current BTC price is around $81,600, well above the $80,000 threshold, and the resolution candle closes at noon ET today. The main risk is an intraday crash of over 2% before that specific candle closes, which is possible but unlikely given the current price level and short remaining time window.
News the AIs read (Oct 15)
- Bitcoin is trading above $80,000 on Oct. 15, 2026 in the available live market snapshots, with recent prices around $81,000–$81,650 on Oct. 15, 2026.
- The most directly relevant current snapshot shows BTC/USDT around $81,603.98 to $81,656.01 on Oct. 15, 2026, with the market down roughly 2% to 3% over the prior 24 hours.
- Binance-linked data in the current results also shows BTC/USDT near $81,542.43 to $81,603.98 on Oct. 15, 2026.
- Because the question resolves on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct. 15, 2026, the deciding fact is that the price is currently above $80,000, but the final outcome is not publicly known yet from these snapshots alone.
- No confirmed event-related news in the results explains a specific spike or crash beyond broad market weakness on Oct. 15, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Market prices: Polymarket. TuringStats is not affiliated with Polymarket.