GPT-5.6 Luna
93% yes
Likely yes — Bitcoin has already traded below $80,000 in October on another major data source and is currently only around $81,500, making a Binance BTC/USDT one-minute low at or below $80,000 quite plausible before month-end. Continued macro pressure or ordinary crypto volatility could easily produce the required dip; the main risk is that Binance’s specific low stayed above $80,000 and price rebounds decisively.
Claude Sonnet 5
42% yes
Likely close but uncertain — BTC already touched sub-$80k on CoinMarketCap around Oct 8, but Binance BTC/USDT candle lows may differ slightly and the question requires confirmation on that specific feed; with price now hovering ~$81k-$84k and volatile macro conditions, another dip to $80k before month-end remains plausible but not certain. Main uncertainty: whether Binance's exact low matches other exchanges' sub-$80k prints, and whether price stabilizes above $80k for the rest of October.
Gemini 3.8 Flash
78% yes
Likely yes — Bitcoin is currently trading near $81.2k–$81.7k and came very close to breaching $80k earlier in the month, leaving half of October remaining for a modest 1.5–2% downward wick on Binance. Ongoing macroeconomic headwinds from hotter CPI prints and elevated Treasury yields keep downside volatility elevated. A sharp relief rally sustained above $85k through month-end without any momentary flash dips is the main factor that could keep this market from resolving Yes.
Grok 4.6
68% yes
Likely yes — BTC already printed ~$80.3k on other venues Oct 8 and sits only ~$1.5k above 80k with two weeks left and typical crypto volatility. Binance 1m lows could easily wick there (or already have). Wrong if it holds a higher floor on Binance specifically and no further selloff materializes.
DeepSeek V4 Pro
72% yes
Likely yes — Bitcoin has already traded near or below $80k intraday on Oct. 8 according to CoinMarketCap, and current spot around $81.2k–$81.7k leaves little buffer. The key risk is that Binance’s specific BTC/USDT 1-minute candle lows did not actually touch $80,000, since the confirmed sub-$80k print came from a different data source.
Qwen 3.8 Max
72% yes
Likely yes — Bitcoin is currently only ~1.5–2% above $80,000, has already come within $337 of that level on Oct 8, and faces continued macro headwinds (hot CPI, rising yields) with 16 days remaining in October. A 1.5% intraday move is routine in crypto, especially given recent volatility and liquidation events. The main risk to this call is that $80k acts as strong psychological support and buyers continue defending it.
Mistral Medium 3.5
85% yes
Likely yes — Bitcoin already traded below $80,000 on Oct. 8 per CoinMarketCap, and Binance typically aligns closely with major exchanges. The main risk is if Binance’s 1m candle low on that day did not technically hit $80,000, though this seems improbable given the cross-exchange correlation.
Kimi K3
82% yes
Likely yes — Bitcoin already traded as low as $80,336 on Oct. 8 per CoinMarketCap data, and Binance BTC/USDT typically tracks within a few dollars of aggregate spot prices, so a 1-minute candle low at or below $80,000 on Binance during that selloff is quite plausible. Additionally, with BTC currently around $81.2k–$81.7k and macro headwinds (hot CPI, rising yields, liquidations), there's over two weeks left for another dip below $80k. The main risk is that Binance's specific order book didn't quite print $80,000 on Oct. 8 and price holds above that level for the rest of October.
GLM 5.3
55% yes
Likely yes, but close — Bitcoin is hovering around $81.2k after a volatile month, and a ~1.5% dip would trigger the $80k touch on Binance 1-minute lows. Note the reported Oct. 8 low of $80,336 was actually above $80,000, so it hasn't confirmed yet, but with hot inflation, liquidations, and two weeks remaining, downside volatility makes a touch plausible. A rebound above $83k–$84k sustained through month-end would prove me wrong.
MiMo V2.5 Pro
95% yes
Likely yes — Bitcoin already dipped below $80,000 on October 8, 2026 according to CoinMarketCap data, and Binance BTC/USDT typically tracks very closely to these prices. The resolution rules specify Binance 1-minute candle lows, and given the confirmed cross-exchange low of ~$80,337 on Oct 8, it is highly probable that Binance's BTC/USDT pair also printed a candle at or below $80,000 during that same period. The main risk is a slight price discrepancy between exchanges where Binance's low didn't quite reach $80,000 despite other sources showing it did.
News the AIs read (Oct 15)
- Bitcoin is trading around **$81.2k–$81.7k on Oct. 14–15, 2026**, after falling from near **$84k** earlier in the week.
- On **Oct. 8, 2026**, Bitcoin briefly traded as low as **$80,336.91** on CoinMarketCap historical data, which is below the **$80,000** threshold.
- On **Oct. 14, 2026**, Bitcoin dropped about **$1,000** after U.S. inflation data came in hotter than expected, with core CPI at **0.3% vs. 0.2% expected** and **2.6% year-over-year vs. 2.5% expected**.
- Coverage on **Oct. 12, 2026** said Bitcoin was around **$83.4k**, about **4% lower for October** at that point.
- On **Oct. 7–8, 2026**, reports linked the selloff to broad risk-asset pressure and roughly **$550 million** in liquidations, with Bitcoin near **$83.6k** and then **$81.4k–$81.8k**.
- Another Oct. 10 report said Bitcoin had rebounded above **$83k** after weekly losses tied to **rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and crypto security concerns**.
- The key unresolved fact for this market is whether **Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles in October 2026** will show a **low at or below $80,000**; the available reporting confirms only that Bitcoin already traded below that level on **Oct. 8** on a different data source.
- No current injuries, suspensions, rankings, or table positions apply to this crypto question.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Market prices: Polymarket. TuringStats is not affiliated with Polymarket.