EIN 2-1 1.F · 49% LEM 1-2 TOU · 44% FRO 1-1 SAS · 42% DEP 1-1 LEV · 44% EVE 1-2 CHE · 46% ESP 1-2 ATL · 48% VEN 0-2 NAP · 54% BAY 2-1 SCF · 49% UNI 0-2 BOR · 51% BOR 2-1 189 · 45% HAM 1-2 VFB · 47% WER 2-1 SCP · 48% FCS 1-0 FSV · 44% SVE 1-2 FCA · 47% EIN 2-1 1.F · 49% LEM 1-2 TOU · 44% FRO 1-1 SAS · 42% DEP 1-1 LEV · 44% EVE 1-2 CHE · 46% ESP 1-2 ATL · 48% VEN 0-2 NAP · 54% BAY 2-1 SCF · 49% UNI 0-2 BOR · 51% BOR 2-1 189 · 45% HAM 1-2 VFB · 47% WER 2-1 SCP · 48% FCS 1-0 FSV · 44% SVE 1-2 FCA · 47%
Sports · Polymarket · Settled Oct 15, 2026

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-15?

KKS Lech Poznań vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen

10 AI models
63% yes

9 lean yes · 1 lean no

Polymarket when AIs voted
60% yes

Settled YES. The AI panel was closer than Polymarket.

What each AI says

GPT-5.6 Luna

64% yes

Likely yes — Leverkusen are the stronger squad, already have three points, and arrive after a high-scoring win, while Lech have several absences and home advantage is only a partial counterweight. Leverkusen’s own defensive injuries and Lech’s 4-1 victory make an upset plausible, especially in a single 90-minute match.

Claude Sonnet 5

58% yes

Likely yes — Leverkusen is stronger overall and has European points already, but playing away in Poznań with some key defensive injuries makes it less than a lock; Lech's attacking form (4 goals in last match) adds draw/upset risk. Main risk to this call: Leverkusen's own injury issues and Lech's home crowd could produce a draw or even upset.

Gemini 3.8 Flash

65% yes

Likely yes — Bayer Leverkusen boasts significantly superior squad depth and European pedigree compared to Lech Poznań, who are missing key contributors through suspension and injury. While playing away in Poznań introduces potential friction and draw risk, Leverkusen's attacking firepower should see them through. The main risk is Lech Poznań mounting an inspired home defensive display that holds Leverkusen to a draw.

Grok 4.6

58% yes

Likely yes — Leverkusen are the clearly stronger side and already have 3 points while Lech have 0, so they should be favorites even away. Injuries on both sides and the Polish home crowd keep it from being a lock. An upset or draw would be the main way this goes wrong.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

78% yes

Likely yes — Leverkusen are the stronger side and already have 3 points in the group, while Lech Poznań are on 0 and missing several key players. Leverkusen’s recent high-scoring away win at Mainz shows they are in form, and their squad depth should overcome Lech’s absences. The main risk is a motivated home crowd and Leverkusen’s own injury list, but their quality edge should prevail.

Qwen 3.8 Max

68% yes

Likely yes — Bayer Leverkusen is a significantly stronger squad than Lech Poznań, already has 3 points in the Europa League group, and their injuries appear to be squad-depth players rather than key starters. Lech's home advantage and Leverkusen's potential rotation in a busy schedule are the main factors that could produce a draw or upset, but the quality gap is substantial enough to favor a Leverkusen win.

Mistral Medium 3.5

65% yes

Likely yes — Leverkusen has a stronger squad, better recent form, and leads the group on points, despite injuries. Lech Poznań’s home advantage and Leverkusen’s absentees could swing it the other way.

Kimi K3

70% yes

Likely yes — Bayer Leverkusen are a much stronger side than Lech Poznań, who are missing several key players (Murawski, Moutinho, Gholizadeh, Douglas) and sit on 0 points in the league phase. Leverkusen also have injury absences, but their squad depth and Bundesliga-level quality should be decisive even away in Poznań. The main risk is a flat away performance or rotated squad in a hostile atmosphere producing a draw or upset.

GLM 5.3

63% yes

Likely yes — Leverkusen are clearly stronger and won their opener, while Lech lost theirs and miss several key players (Murawski suspended, Moutinho/Gholizadeh/Douglas injured). However, it's an away fixture with a hostile crowd, Lech showed attacking form (4 goals vs Śląsk), and Leverkusen's leaky defense (conceding 4 to Mainz) leaves real draw/loss risk. An early Lech goal or Leverkusen rotation in the league phase could flip this.

MiMo V2.5 Pro

42% yes

Probably not certain — Leverkusen are the stronger side and have already banked 3 points, but this is an away fixture in Europe against a motivated Lech Poznań side, and a straight win in 90 minutes typically lands around 40–45% for a favorite on the road. Leverkusen's absences (Ben Seghir, Doué, Kofane, Eichhorn, Culbreath) thin their attack and Lech have home advantage in Poznań, though Leverkusen's superior squad depth and scoring form (4-3 at Mainz) still make them modest favorites. What could prove me wrong: if Leverkusen's remaining XI is close to full strength and Lech's 0-point start reflects real weakness, a comfortable away win is very plausible, pushing this toward 50+.

News the AIs read (Oct 15)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs KKS Lech Poznań is scheduled for **2026-10-15** in the **UEFA Europa League league phase, matchday 2**, at **Enea Stadion / Enea Poznań in Poznań, Poland**. - The match time is listed as **16:45 UTC** / **18:45 local time** on **2026-10-15**. - Lech Poznań’s most recent listed result is a **1-4 win over Śląsk Wrocław on 2026-10-10**. - Bayer Leverkusen’s most recent listed result is a **3-4 win over Mainz on 2026-10-11**. - Lech Poznań injuries/suspension listed: **Radosław Murawski suspended**, **João Moutinho injured**, **Ali Gholizadeh injured**, **Alex Douglas injured**. - Bayer Leverkusen injuries listed: **Eliesse Ben Seghir**, **Kennet Eichhorn**, **Guéla Doué**, **Montrell Culbreath**, and **Christian Kofane** are all listed as unavailable with injuries/illness. - Standings/form context: ESPN lists **Lech Poznań at 0 points** and **Bayer Leverkusen at 3 points** going into the match. - Head-to-head context: one preview notes this is the **first Europa League meeting** between the clubs.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 15, 2026 If Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Market prices: Polymarket. TuringStats is not affiliated with Polymarket.

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